By Will Vandervort.
So who has the edge as the Clemson Tigers host the North Carolina Tar Heels today (7 p.m.) at Death Valley? The Clemson Insider breaks down all the key matchups as the Tigers go for their first ACC victory of the season.
Clemson’s special teams vs. North Carolina’s special teams: North Carolina’s Ryan Switzer is an outstanding pass catcher, but he is also among the top punt returners in the nation. Last year he set an NCAA record with five punt returns for touchdowns. T.J. Thorpe is an all-purpose player the Tigers should remember. He had a 100-yard kickoff return for a score against Clemson in 2011. He had 234 all-purpose yards as a freshman that day. Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney says UNC has the best special teams unit they will see all year when it comes to the return game. It will be a big challenge for the Tigers to keep these two at bay and not allow them to turn momentum in the Tar Heels favor. The Tigers have already allowed a 100-yard kick return to Georgia’s Todd Gurley, as well as giving up nice punt returns to both Florida State and Georgia. Advantage: North Carolina
Clemson’s running game vs. UNC’s defense: The Tar Heels were gashed last week by East Carolina to the tune of 343 yards. UNC is allowing opponents to rush for 222 yards per game this year. The Tigers have been up and down in their running game. They are averaging just 152.3 yards per game on the ground, but they combined for just 189 yards in losses to Georgia and Florida State. The Seminoles stuffed the Tigers for no gain on fourth-and-inches in overtime which led them to victory. Granted North Carolina is no Georgia or Florida State, especially with three new starters in the interior of the line who are also undersized, but if the Tigers want to take pressure off freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson, then seeing running backs Wayne Gallman, C.J. Davidson and Adam Choice run through large holes would help a lot. Watson, who is known for running the ball well in this offense in high school, might also help in the running game. He rushed for 30 yards and ran for a touchdown against the Seminoles last week. Advantage: Clemson
Deshaun Watson vs. Vic Koenning: Clemson’s former defensive coordinator Vic Koenning is famous for taking away the opposition’s best player and that’s what he will try do against Clemson tonight. He will try to make someone other than Watson beat him. Though the Tar Heels want to keep things simple after giving up 789 yards and 70 points to East Carolina last week, Koenning will try and disguise his coverages and roll the defense to give Watson as many looks as possible to try and confuse the freshman who will be making his first start. So far, Watson has shown really good poise under pressure against Georgia and Florida State, but that was coming off the bench. How will he handle a team that has game planned for him specifically like the Tar Heels have all week? The good news for Watson is the fact UNC ranks 122nd in pass defense nationally, allowing 325.3 yards a game, primarily because it has no pass rush. Watch out, though, the Tar Heels are tied for the ACC lead in interceptions with six and cornerback Brian Walker has three of those, including a 100-yard interception return. Advantage: Clemson
Clemson’s defense vs. UNC’s offense: As crazy as this might sound, I think this is a good matchup for the Tigers. Why? North Carolina is mostly a side-to-side or horizontal offense. Yes, they will take a few chances down field, but they like to run the short stuff to the sidelines and run sweeps and things of that nature to bring the defense up and then they will go deep. But Clemson has a lot of team speed on defense to match that sideline-to-sideline action. The important thing is for the Tigers’ corners and safeties to hold containment and leverage on these plays and allow the backside pursuit to catch up and make the tackles. The Tigers showed against FSU they have improved greatly as a tackling team since the Georgia game and they will have to do that again against North Carolina’s wide receivers and running backs. The Tar Heels have four sophomores and one freshman starting on the offensive line so one might think the Tigers veteran defensive line will get a push up field. But UNC will try to negate that with the quick passes to the flats in hopes that one of its playmakers can make a play. Advantage: Clemson
Bottom line: It’s Deshaun Watson’s first game in Death Valley as the starter. It’s a night game. Clemson’s defense is playing with a purpose and is playing angry. There will be no hangover from the Florida State game. The Tigers roll.
Prediction: Clemson 52, North Carolina 10