By William Qualkinbush.
By William Qualkinbush.
By William Qualkinbush.
Before the season began, this was one of the major games circled on the calendars of Clemson fans all over the world. Louisville, coming to Tigertown for the first time as an ACC member, would provide a stiff test.
Those concerns were valid. After all, Bobby Petrino was now coaching. He had a quarterback that fit his prototype in Will Gardner. He had an unbelievable array of skill talent he could rely upon to get yards and points. He had an explosive defense that made a bunch of plays under Charlie Strong and was filled with south Florida athletes.
Things seemed to point to a clash of Atlantic Division titans looking to stake a claim to an upper-echelon spot on one side of the ACC. It may still turn into that kind of a contest.
But Clemson has struggled to shake the national stigma of a 1-2 start, and Louisville has been, shall we say, underwhelming in jumping out of the gate with a 5-1 record. As a result, we now have a game that much of the country gets to ignore amidst more meaningful action on a football Saturday.
I think Deshaun Watson is a pretty good draw. So is Clemson’s vaunted defense, which has already posted a pair of shutouts this season. So is Memorial Stadium, which should be electric as usual thanks to some ill-advised rhetoric from Petrino about volume.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals come in relatively unknown to the nation because of the way they’ve played. Because of this, if we’re not careful, we can allow some obviously wrongheaded assumptions to invade the conversation heading into this game.
I’m a stats guy, but there are some misleading statistically-based statements we can make about the Tigers’ opponent this week. For instance, Louisville’s defense is ranked first in the country in yards allowed per game. That looks great—until you realize the cupcake slate the Cardinals have faced thus far.
The best statistical offense Louisville has faced so far—outside of FCS foe Murray State—is 73rd-ranked Syracuse, which just reassigned its offensive coordinator this week. Again, that’s the BEST offense the Cardinals have matched up against this season. The other opponents include Virginia (80th), Miami (FL) (82nd), FIU (121st), and Wake Forest (129th), the worst offensive team in college football by leaps and bounds.
By contrast, the worst offense Clemson has faced is actually North Carolina, which ranks 70th in the country. Yes, this means the WORST statistical offense Clemson has faced is actually better that the BEST statistical offense Louisville has faced. Let that sink in before you make any assumptions about either defense heading into this game.
(For your reference, Georgia ranks 40th, Florida State ranks 41st, and N.C. State ranks 46th. That’s the rest of the Tigers’ schedule.)
Simply put, Clemson’s offense represents the absolute best unit Louisville has faced so far this season—and it’s not even close. I think the Cardinals are in for a rude awakening.
Offensively, the Cardinals have a fearsome set of skill players, yet struggles at quarterback have grounded Petrino’s attack this season. Even if stud wideout Devante Parker comes back and makes an impact at receiver after suffering an injury in preseason camp, it’ll take a valiant effort for an offense ranked in the nation’s bottom quarter to move the football.
Plus, Clemson has Watson at quarterback. Louisville had better score some points if it wants to compete, and that’s been tough to do for a team that lost at Virginia earlier this season.
The bottom line is this: Louisville is a paper tiger—or, more appropriately, a paper Cardinal. Its numbers look good, and the hype is there, but stats and hype don’t win in Death Valley.
I’m not even sure Louisville has enough of those two things to even come close against a supremely confident Clemson team.
God Bless!
WQ