Time for this week’s edition of the BCS Watch. The fifth BCS standings come out Sunday night and the BCS watch continues. Each week TheClemsonInsider.com will take a look at the battle for the Bowl Championship Series.
The Tigers were ranked No. 13 in last week’s BCS rankings as they were once again hurt by the computer rankings. Clemson is down to No. 9 this week in the USA Today Coaches Poll which is one third of the BCS. Last week the Tigers were No. 9 in the Harris Poll. Clemson continues to be hurt by the computer rankings, but made some progress on that front last week.
Heading into the final three weeks of the season Clemson has positioned itself to where if it can win out it will will almost certainly be headed to the Orange Bowl or the Sugar Bowl.
Easiest Path
The easiest path for Clemson to make the BCS is for the Tigers to once again win the Atlantic Coast Conference. For that to happen Florida State must lose another conference game and the Tigers must win their remaining conference game, next week against NC State in Death Valley. With the injuries Maryland has suffered through it is very unlikely the Terps will upset the ‘Noles next week so it looks like the Tigers only path to the BCS will be as an at-large team.
With Alabama’s loss Saturday the at-large path is easier for the Tigers as long as two of the remaining undefeated teams do not suffer a loss.
At-large Battle
The path to an at-large BCS bid for the Tigers improved again this weekend. In order to get an at-large bid Clemson will need to win its remaining regular season games.
Clemson fans will now need to watch Louisiana Tech to see if it sneaks in and grabs an automatic bid. In order to get an automatic bid, Louisiana Tech will need to finish in the top 16 in the BCS standings and finish ahead of one of the AQ conference champions. If No. 16 Nebraska were to lose in the Big 10 Championship Game and Louisiana Tech was in the top 16 and finished ahead of the Big 10 Champion then it would get an automatic spot.
With Alabama’s loss the debate will begin about whether a one-loss Alabama team, should they win the SEC, will make it back to the National Championship Game. The media spin has already begun.
Clemson could be heading towards another battle with the Tide in the Sugar Bowl if things fall in place.
Oregon State’s loss to Stanford on Saturday guarantees the PAC 12 runner-up will have at least three losses, assuming Oregon runs the table. If that happens Oregon will almost certainly make the Championship Game. If they are the No. 1 team, the Rose Bowl will get the first pick to replace Oregon. An Oklahoma vs. Nebraska game might be very attractive for the Rose Bowl. If Notre Dame is not in the Championship Game the Rose Bowl would certainly select the Irish.
An Oregon verses Kansas State Championship (with Oregon No. 1 in the BCS) would likely lead to Notre Dame playing in the Rose Bowl, Oklahoma playing Texas A&M in the Fiesta and Clemson battling Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.
If Oregon played Kansas State and the Wildcats were No. 1 in the BCS, it will likely lead to Notre Dame vs. a second SEC team in the Fiesta, Nebraska vs. Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl and Clemson battling Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.
If Kansas State battles Notre Dame in the Championship Game then the Rose Bowl would likely be Oregon vs. the Big Ten champion. The Fiesta Bowl will then get the first pick to replace Kansas State and then the next pick as well. In that scenario the No. 2 SEC team would likely face Oklahoma and that would again lead to a possible Alabama vs. Clemson matchup in the Sugar Bowl.
If Oregon or Alabama were to lose their championship games they would certainly become at-large teams and the above scenarios would change.
One thing to remember is that only two teams from any AQ conference can make the BCS.
Notre Dame is a lock to make the BCS at this point, even if they stumble in their final two games. The only question is where will the Irish play?
Should the SEC or Big 12 have a team qualify for the BCS Championship game, then it will have two teams qualify for the BCS, which will still leave two at large bids.
With Ohio State and Penn State being ineligible for the BCS we can already predict that the Big Ten will only have one BCS team this year.
Go to this link to see the BCS selection procedures.
TCI breaks down the BCS contenders and long shots from each conference:
SEC
Serious Contenders
Alabama 9-1 (SEC Championship Game)
Florida 9-1 (Nov. 24 at Florida State)
Texas A&M 8-2
LSU 8-2
Georgia 9-1 (Nov. 24 hosts Georgia Tech, SEC Championship Game)
Big 12
Serious Contenders
Kansas State 9-0 (Dec. 1 hosts Texas)
Longshots
Oklahoma 6-2 (Nov. 17 at West Virginia, Nov. 24 hosts Oklahoma State)
Pac-12
Serious Contenders
Oregon 10-0 (Nov. 17 vs. Stanford, Nov. 24 at Oregon State)
Oregon State 7-2 (Nov. 24 at Oregon)
Independents
Serious Contenders
Notre Dame 10-0 (Nov. 24 at USC)
Big Ten
No Serious Contenders for at-large bids.
Non-BCS Schools
La. Tech (vs. 8-2 Utah State; at 8-2 San Jose State)