By William Qualkinbush.

By William Qualkinbush.

The last thing I want this space to become is an online fortune cookie. But yesterday, I became focused on one particular idea as I chatted with media types, players, and coaches at the ACC Football Kickoff in Greensboro.

Sometimes life is hard, and sometimes we make it hard.

This is true in any number of societal circumstances that are more important than preseason college football polling. It doesn’t mean we can’t have some fun (or be critical) when it does apply within less serious arenas.

Last year around this time, conventional wisdom said Clemson was the prohibitive favorite to win the ACC Atlantic Division, as well as the entire conference. The Tigers returned a smorgasbord of talented players at the skill positions and were scheduled to play just about every meaningful game in the friendly confines of Memorial Stadium (save the finale).

Clemson’s main rival for the division crown was Florida State, a team that didn’t seem capable of dethroning the Tigers. There were simply too many questions. Jimbo Fisher had more than a handful of new assistants. A new quarterback was taking over for a first-round NFL Draft pick. The defense was talented but largely untested and undisciplined.

Plus, the Seminoles had to travel to Clemson to play. It was just impossible to make a case for Florida State as the top team in the division over Clemson. The season played out differently, but in the preseason, we deal with conventional wisdom and prognostication.

This year, both schools are experiencing the shoes being on opposite feet. Florida State is now the inevitable team to beat. It’s the one with the favorable schedule. It’s the one with the opportunity to host its primary division rival. It’s the one returning experience at key spots.

Clemson is the team with question marks. A new quarterback doesn’t inspire confidence up against the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. Losing 1,000-yard performers at both receiver and running back, plus another dynamic receiver, seems crushing. The defense has proven itself capable but not quite consistently dominant—much like FSU’s unit in 2012.

The comparisons aren’t perfect, but they are eerily similar, and they ought to beget optimism among the Clemson fan base. However, they shouldn’t lead anyone to pick Clemson over Florida State in the Atlantic Division or the ACC. That’s just ridiculous.

But three people picked the Tigers anyway. Three people in a gaggle of 112 voters at the ACC Football Kickoff thought Clemson would either walk out of Tallahassee with a win or the Seminoles would drop two games outside of the showdown with the Tigers. I searched long and hard for those two games and found myself closer to zero than two.

It’s hard to go undefeated, certainly. It’s even harder to do it again. But to assume the defending national champions—a team most believe will be just as difficult to beat as last year’s version—will drop two games “to the schedule” is foolishness. It comes from trying to outsmart the facts on the ground.

Reality tells us there is an obvious frontrunner for the Atlantic Division. Reality tells us the Heisman Trophy winner is back for another season, so he should at least be the conference player of the year. Yet nine media members voted for someone else because they feel smarter than conventional wisdom.

I love Vic Beasley, but the six people who voted for him over Jameis Winston are assuming both a dropoff from Winston and a historic, once-in-a-generation season from Beasley. The same goes for Duke Johnson, who wasn’t even considered a candidate last year even as a potential 1,300-yard rusher before his injury. The votes for Duke’s Jamison Crowder and Virginia Tech’s Brenden Motley (who???) are just as asinine.

The bottom line is that this preseason should be an easy one, yet some are overcomplicating it. When the facts point overwhelmingly in one direction, it’s just annoying when people try to find a way around those facts.

I’d love to see the trail of facts that led someone to predict a team other than Florida State or a player other than Jameis Winston as the class of the ACC. I’m sure it’s decidedly unbiased.

God Bless!

WQ