By William Qualkinbush.

By William Qualkinbush.

Over the next couple of weeks, we will do a position-by-position analysis of Clemson football on the blog, complete with statistical analysis, depth chart news, and projections for the upcoming season. We begin today with a profile of the quarterback position…

Let’s get this out of the way right off the bat: Tajh Boyd isn’t walking through that door.

Boyd left Clemson as a record-breaking, award-winning, highly-touted college player who is responsible for a great deal of the positive press Chad Morris’ offense has received around the nation since 2011. His presence will be sorely missed this season for a number of reasons.

However, just because Boyd was a critical cog in the offenses from 2011 through 2013 doesn’t mean Cole Stoudt can’t pick up the slack in 2014 just fine. The senior from Ohio has paid his dues and appears poised to take the offense in a slightly different direction this season.

Many have speculated the offense may look more like something borne from the brain of Gus Malzahn this season. The losses of top receivers Sammy Watkins and Martavis Bryant are driving this discussion, but it also has a great deal to do with the skill sets Stoudt possesses that Boyd did not.

Last season, Clemson’s offense favored the run slightly, with run plays accounting for about 52.5 percent of snaps. This means 47.5 percent of the 1,037 snaps Morris’ offense took were devoted to the pass. Given the likelihood for quarterback scrambles and the reality that sacks are subtracted from rushing yardage, the play calling was probably closer to a 50-50 split.

With Stoudt under center, expect the playcalling to be a bit more skewed toward the run. This feeds the ball more frequently to any of the four tailbacks the Tigers will employ this season. It also protects Stoudt from overexposure, which is sometimes a concern with new quarterbacks at this level of football.

Last season, Clemson’s quarterbacks threw 492 passes, with 413—about 84 percent—of those going to Boyd. If we assume 1,000 plays on offense—maybe a bit conservative—and account for some drop in pass plays called and executed, factoring in the potential for other players to take some reps, it would be realistic to see around 450 passes overall, with maybe 380 of them going to Stoudt.

A little-known fact about Boyd is that he finished last season with a 68.5 completion percentage. Conventional wisdom says Stoudt will be a more accurate passer. After all, he did convert on 79.3 percent of his passing attempts last season. However, it’s a really tall order to beat 68.5 percent.

Plus, Boyd was brilliant at throwing the deep ball, and Stoudt has struggled with his accuracy on those throws throughout the spring and fall. There was a significant difference between Boyd’s yards per attempt average (9.3) and Stoudt’s (7.1) last season, and comfortability with the deep ball is one of a few possible explanations for it. Game situation and personnel might be to blame, too, so it’s unfair to assume such a low number will accompany Stoudt to his newfound starting role.

When all is said and done, given Stoudt’s propensity to miss on deep throws and his general accuracy at the checkdowns and shorter throws, a 65-percent completion rate appears to be realistic. That would put Stoudt at somewhere around 250 completions this season, compared to 283 for Boyd last year.

Projecting yardage becomes a bit trickier because of Stoudt’s past. The 7.1 number quoted above was his career high, so he’s never been asked to stretch the field very much. He will definitely be asked to do so this season but not to the extent Boyd was because there is really no field-stretcher of the Nuk Hopkins-Sammy Watkins ilk.

Since we know Stoudt’s downfield attempts will increase significantly in a starting role, it seems realistic to project an 8.5 YPA average. That would put Stoudt at just over 3,200 yards passing. That’s a far cry from Boyd’s past three seasons of over 3,800 yards, but it’s still a quality number that would have ranked among the top 25 in the nation in 2013.

It’s also fair to say Stoudt won’t be relied upon as heavily as a runner as Boyd was. Over the past three seasons, Boyd ran the ball almost 500 times, with many of those attempts coming on scrambles or in short-yardage situations. Stoudt appears to be a more attractive option on the edge, and we know Morris intends to utilize his stable of backs between the tackles more this season.

In this offense, Stoudt will probably carry the ball a few times per game by default. Zone reads and quarterback scrambles dictate that. But he won’t run it as much as Boyd. It seems realistic to project 8-10 carries per game for Stoudt, plus a couple of sacks per contest. This should account for maybe 400 yards over the course of the season, given Stoudt’s ability to reach open space on the edge, as compared to Boyd’s more powerful running style.

One wild card in all of this is Deshaun Watson. The talented freshman has come to campus with much acclaim and has performed well in both spring practice and fall camp. Clemson will probably use him with more regularity than it used Stoudt as Boyd’s backup, although no one really knows if Watson will be more of a runner or thrower or if the coaching staff will throw him in on a schedule regardless of game situation.

These things will become clearer as the season unfolds and could change these projections significantly over time. Suffice it to say Clemson will miss Boyd’s big play capability, but Stoudt should perform just fine in his only year as the starter.