By Will Vandervort.
Thanks to South Carolina’s improbable series win at No. 2 Texas A&M this past weekend, the Gamecocks might have kept Clemson’s slim hopes of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team alive. Ironically, the Tigers have an opportunity return the favor this week when it travels to seventh-ranked Florida State for a three-game series beginning this Thursday.
What am I taking about?
USC’s win at Texas A&M jumped the Gamecocks to No. 58 in Warren Nolan.com’ latest RPI rankings. USC will host top-ranked LSU later this week. If South Carolina were to win that series, then the Gamecocks could increase their RPI ranking into the top 50.
It is not impossible to think that could happen.
LSU has already wrapped up a top 8 national seed regardless of what happens in Columbia, or in next week’s SEC Tournament, so there is really nothing for the Baton Rouge Tigers to play for until it gets to the NCAA Tournament.
So how does all this help Clemson?
It’s simple. If the Tigers, who currently stand at No. 66 in the RPI, were to beat Furman on Tuesday and then take two of three from the Seminoles, who are No. 3 in the latest RPI rankings, then they are sure to jump into the top 50 by the end of the weekend. Especially considering Clemson’s strength of schedule ranks 16th nationally and will only go up from here.
If the Tigers (27-25, 13-13 ACC) do like South Carolina and pull off the impossible, then they will head into next week’s ACC Tournament more than likely as the sixth seed (we will get into that later). That means they will play No. 8 Miami (4th in the RPI), No. 7 FSU (No. 3 RPI) and/or UNC (No. 22 RPI), Ga. Tech (No. 27 RPI) or Virginia (No. 31) next week in Durham, NC.
That’s six more possible games against top 35 RPI teams on the road and on neutral site (keep in mind road and neutral wins are rewarded more). So going 3-1 this week and 3-1 in the ACC Tournament (that’s losing in the championship game of course) would put Clemson on the bubble and would force the NCAA to have to choose between a name program like Clemson and programs such as UNC Wilmington, Southeastern Louisiana, North Florida, Memphis, Southern Miss or a UTSA.
It also helps the Tigers already own a series win against the Gamecocks, which includes a road-win in Columbia. That would look good in the committee members’ eyes when comparing Clemson to other teams on the bubble.
What’s also helping Clemson is the fact the ACC is expected to have as many as eight teams be invited to the NCAA Tournament. A winning record in the ACC—that means having to win 2 of 3 at Florida State—will help the Tigers’ chances because the Big 12 is having a down year and it’s expected to get no more than two teams in while the Big Ten more than likely will get no more than four.
Of course the easier route for the Tigers would be to win the ACC Tournament and bunch their own ticket to the dance. But to do that, Clemson needs to qualify for the ACC Tournament first. Of course winning the series in Tallahassee would do that, but what if they don’t, as many of us expect.
Of course that eliminates any hopes of an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. But the easiest scenario to make the ACC Tournament, besides winning, is for Wake Forest, who currently sits at No. 11 in the conference standings, to lose two of its remaining four games. The Demon Deacons host NC State tonight and then later this week travel to Durham to take on the Duke Blue Devils, who are already eliminated from making the ACC Tournament.
Clemson can be anywhere from a No. 5 seed in the tournament to not in it at all. As a matter of fact, this is the first time in recent history the conference enters the final week of the regular season and seeds 3-10 are still wide open. The only two teams that have locked down their seeding for the ACC Tournament are Louisville and Miami.
The key for the Tigers is to try and avoid the play-in games between the No. 7 and No. 10 seeds and the No. 8 and No. 9 next Tuesday in Durham, N.C. Win the series over FSU and have Virginia win at least one at North Carolina, and Miami win one over Georgia Tech in Coral Gables, Fla. then Clemson would be the No. 6 seed.
Lose the series or be swept, then there will be a whole lot of scoreboard watching.
To sum it all up, Clemson has a chance to make the NCAA Tournament as a conference champion and, though slight, as an at-large team. Regardless, it comes down to this one simple thing. They have to win to get in.