Riding a two-game winning streak, the Clemson men’s basketball team will “host” Duke tonight in Greenville in what has become a pretty important ACC battle here in mid-January. (Why the quotation marks around “host”? Keep reading…)
Here are some things I’ll be watching (well, technically, I’ll be on a plane or in an airport, but you get the idea) that could play major roles in the outcome tonight:
- Duke’s players are really good, but there aren’t many of them.
The best coaches know how to efficiently utilize any kind of bench. Mike Krzyzewski (thank goodness I get to type “Coach K” now) has proven an ability to do just that, and his roster this year is about as shallow as it gets.
In a blowout win over Virginia Tech on Saturday, Duke basically played six players the whole time. Two other players played negligibly in the contest, but the Blue Devils have really shortened their bench since a broken foot sidelined reliable post presence Amile Jefferson.
Brad Brownell has had an interesting philosophy when it comes to bench utility this season. He has been flexible based upon the situation, choosing to play fewer players against appropriate teams—Syracuse, for example—instead of trying to use depth against them. He will use more guys if he feels they’re playing well, but he won’t force his bench into the game if he doesn’t think it gives them a better chance on a per-possession basis.
Still, I’d be surprised if there isn’t an effort to wear down the Blue Devils over the long haul by playing aggressively on defense, even though the Dukies have hit 73 percent of their free throws this season.
- Grayson Allen has to be guarded by somebody.
What Clemson does against Allen will dictate the matchup. Utah beat Duke because Allen shot a horrific percentage from the floor while dealing with a stomach virus. In the absence of rogue bacteria, gameplanning for this outstanding player will be difficult.
The super sophomore is in the running for the Naismith Award, averaging 20.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game for the year. He shoots 40 percent from three and can get to the rim at will, where he is great at drawing contact. He also hits about 86 percent of his free throws, so you can’t just whack him freely, either.
Expect a plethora of Tigers to chase Allen off the ball. I’d think Donte Grantham matches up well with him physically, but Avry Holmes and Gabe Devoe might be able to hang with him, too. As always, Brownell’s teams will look to help and switch as needed within the specific matchup. This will need to be an intricate gameplan that is brilliantly executed in order to limit Allen’s effectiveness.
- Duke’s offense is much more than the Grayson Allen Show, though.
Figuring out a way to limit Allen isn’t the key to stopping Duke. On the contrary, it’s only the beginning of the process.
Freshman Brandon Ingram is a 16-6 guy that can face up and shoot the three or score with skill on the block. He’s an advanced stretch-four that should be a problem for Blossomgame. Marshall Plumlee is still, well, Marshall Plumlee, but the former oaf is actually putting up decent scoring and rebounding numbers. His relentless Tyler Hansbrough-esque pursuit of offensive boards could lead to foul trouble for Landry Nnoko and/or Sidy Djitte if they don’t locate him early.
Matt Jones is a second ball handler that runs the offense for stretches of play. He can get to the rack or hit threes from anywhere. Luke Kennard is a sneaky scorer that is automatic from the foul line.
See, I told you…not that easy. This is why Duke ranks third in the country in raw efficiency, scoring almost 1.24 points per possession.
- Ball movement and transition threes will be key for Clemson.
Duke does a really good job of chasing shooters off of the three-point line. Opponents only shoot 29.2 percent of their shots from beyond the arc against the Blue Devils, well under Clemson’s rate of 40.8 percent.
The Tigers will need to drive under control and hit midrange jump shots. Everyone knows about Duke’s ability to take charges—thanks, Coach K, for teaching that SO WELL—so getting all the way to the rim must not be the only solution for players like Jaron Blossomgame or Holmes.
The Dukies are far from stellar at actually defending attempted threes, so there should be open shots available. Much like against Louisville and Syracuse, the Tigers must knock them down—especially when they get fast break opportunities.
- Perhaps the biggest factor in this game will be the crowd.
After a lackluster showing during the football portion of the basketball schedule, Clemson has benefited from good “home” crowds in conference play. There were moments in the Florida State and Louisville wins where the fans played a role in establishing momentum. That was good to see from the Clemson perspective.
Now for the sobering reality: If between 1,500 and 2,000 Duke fans can find a way into Littlejohn Coliseum once every year, how many will find a way to Bon Secours Wellness Arena? Thousands of empty seats in the oversized coliseum represent thousands of opportunities for bandwagon Duke fans to make the venue a neutral site, if not worse.
Clemson fans must make the atmosphere similar to Florida State and Louisville, as opposed to South Carolina. A 50-50 crowd plays right into Duke’s hands, and that’s my biggest fear heading into tonight’s game.
God Bless!
WQ
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