February is here, and that means March Madness is beginning to take shape. The Clemson basketball team finds itself right in the thick of the NCAA Tournament picture. Through the end of the season, TCI will have a regular update of the Tigers’ body of work complete with RPI ranking, KenPom.com ranking, and a percentage chance the Tigers are included in the field courtesy of TeamRankings.com, along with the differentials since the last update.
Record: 14-8 (7-3 ACC)
RPI: 76th (-1, 6-4 Top 50, 7-6 Top 100)
KenPom.com: 49th (-1)
Chances: 31.8% (-2.1%)
Qualk’s Take: Clemson’s win at Wake Forest was much better from an NCAA Tournament resume perspective than it was in terms of the ACC standings. That rare win in Winston-Salem gave the Tigers a top 100 victory on the road, not an insignificant thing as we come down the stretch of the season. Clemson’s in-conference resume outweighs the weakness of its pre-conference slate, in my opinion, so I would still have the Tigers in at this point, with the potential to become a solid member of the field of 68 with a few more victories.
Here are some games to watch tonight that could impact Clemson’s NCAA Tournament chances…
Virginia (-1) at Pittsburgh, 12:00, RSN: With Louisville now out of the postseason picture, Clemson’s chances of actually making a run at the ACC title have become clearer. The Cavaliers are tied with the Tigers with a 7-3 conference mark, a half game ahead of Pittsburgh. Clemson owns the tiebreaker with Pitt, but it doesn’t against Virginia. A Panthers victory in this matchup would greatly benefit the Tigers in the short term.
Florida State (-3) at Wake Forest, 12:00, RSN: Wake Forest won’t be stealing a bid from anybody, but the Demon Deacons could have plenty to say about a few of them. The Seminoles have an intriguing profile but can’t afford too many losses like this one. This may also represent the final chance for the Demon Deacons to show they haven’t gone belly-up after some crushing losses in ACC play.
Temple (-4.5) at UCF, 12:00, ESPNU: Temple came from behind to steal a home win from Tulsa in an elimination game on the bubble, at least for the time being. The Owls could easily squander that momentum with a loss in Orlando, and they are in Clemson’s RPI peer group. A quick turnaround makes this a potential breeding ground for an upset.
Texas Tech at Texas (-10), 2:00: Texas is solidly in the field, but Texas Tech is not. The Red Raiders will be buoyed by the fact that they will constantly be facing off against high-caliber competition in the Big 12, but overall, the body of work still lacks some pizzazz. Clemson benefits greatly if Texas and the other powers in the conference drive Texas Tech into the NIT.
Michigan State (-3.5) at Michigan, 2:00, CBS: Technically, Michigan is a game ahead of Michigan State in the Big Ten standings. Realistically, however, Sparty is a solid tournament team, while the Wolverines still have some work to do. As a lined underdog at home, this is a big chance for Michigan to assert itself–or for Michigan State to perform as expected on its opponent’s home floor.
Arizona (-3.5) at Washington, 4:30, FOX: Washington is the Clemson of the Pac-12 this season. The Huskies were so enigmatic during November and December that many observers assumed Lorenzo Romar might eventually get the ax after a long career in Spokane. Now, his team is one game out of first place and ahead of an Arizona team with a surprisingly shallow body of work. The Wildcats will get the benefit of the doubt on Selection Sunday, so it helps the Tigers more if they become a no-doubt inclusion into the field.
North Carolina (-3) at Notre Dame, 7:00, ESPN: As stated previously, Clemson actually has a shot to make a run at the ACC title. It’s not a pipe dream any longer, and it becomes much more doable if the Tar Heels drop a second game soon. This matchup on the road against a hungry Fighting Irish squad represents just the right sort of opportunity for that to happen.
Vanderbilt (-3) at Ole Miss, 8:00, ESPNU: Vandy got a much-needed quality win when it defeated Texas A&M earlier this week. Now, the Commodores get a chance to keep that momentum going on the road in Oxford. Ole Miss might not even be an NIT team at the moment, but it’s a tough out in its own building, and a quick turnaround for Vandy could send it to the wrong side of the bubble.
Colorado at Oregon State (-2.5), 8:30: Oregon State squeaked by against Utah on Thursday night, and now a suddenly resurgent Beavers team hosts the Buffaloes in primetime. Oregon State has played a pretty tough schedule and boasts some quality wins, meaning a victory over a tournament team like Colorado can go a long way toward convincing people it belongs in this discussion. A loss, however, could undo the good Thursday’s win provided.
Georgetown at Seton Hall (-4), 9:00, CBSSN: Georgetown is another team looking to use a surge in conference play to vault its way into the field of 68. In spite of that uptick, the Hoyas currently sit in Clemson’s peer group in the RPI and can hardly afford a third straight loss. Seton Hall is a quality opponent probably destined for the NCAA Tourney, so Clemson fans can end the night rooting for the Pirates to do what’s expected at home and knock Georgetown further into the NIT.