February is here, and that means March Madness is beginning to take shape. The Clemson basketball team finds itself right in the thick of the NCAA Tournament picture. Through the end of the season, TCI will have a regular update of the Tigers’ body of work complete with RPI ranking, KenPom.com ranking, and a percentage chance the Tigers are included in the field courtesy of TeamRankings.com, along with the differentials since the last update.
Record: 14-10 (7-5 ACC)
RPI: 87th (-4, 6-6 Top 50, 6-7 Top 100)
KenPom.com: 57th (N/A)
Chances: 9.6% (-0.4%)
Qualk’s Take: From an NCAA Tournament standpoint, the Tigers took a haymaker on Monday night. Falling at home to a white-hot Notre Dame team makes the climb enormously more difficult for a Clemson squad still smarting from its pre-conference difficulties and burdened with a poor RPI ranking. Monday’s defeat wasn’t a crushing blow in terms of the analytics or the computers, but the Tigers needed the win-loss record to outweigh some of those less-than-flattering factors. It will likely take a flurry of wins down the stretch (and maybe a good bit of outside help) for Clemson to taste the postseason.
Here are some games to watch tonight that could impact Clemson’s NCAA Tournament chances…
Hofstra at William & Mary, 7:00: Both of these teams are looking for at-large viability out of the Colonial Athletic Association. It seems like a tough road ahead for either of them, and this game could help sift through the muck a little bit. Hofstra has more quality wins, but William & Mary has a better overall resume and sits at 35th in the RPI. It seems like the Pride could use this win more than the Tribe, but a road victory could be tough to come by in a difficult venue.
Connecticut at Temple, 7:00, ESPN2: Temple is one of those programs that just seems to have nine lives. From buzzer-beaters to overtime wins, the Owls just won’t die. However, they don’t have the body of work yet to justify an NCAA Tourney berth. Similarly, Connecticut has some work to do, but the program’s cache can serve to break a lot of ties. I’m thinking the Huskies would greatly benefit from a road win in this one.
Florida State at Syracuse, 7:00, ESPN: On one hand, Clemson would probably like for Florida State to win this game. The Seminoles played the Tigers twice, and it’s always nice for the teams you play more often to be highly thought of. On the other hand, that road win against a top 50 Syracuse team does look nice. That signature victory gives the Tigers a kind of accomplishment they don’t otherwise have. Either way, this game should clear out some space in the middle of the ACC.
Oregon at California, 9:00, ESPN: Oregon has ascended to the top of the RPI rankings as a virtual unknown across the nation, but the Ducks are no joke. They can flat out play, both at home and on the road. Cal is just about the most predictable team in the country, winning all 14 home games and only one on the road. The Golden Bears are widely seen as a talented, underachieving bunch that can’t really afford to lose home games because they’ve been so poor on the road. We shall see what transpires in this one.
Iowa at Indiana, 9:00, ESPN: Realistically, both of these teams are getting into the NCAA Tournament. I really don’t think Indiana gets left out unless it tanks. However, the body of work for the Hoosiers is a lot of fluff and little substance. It could use a win against an elite Iowa team that keeps surpassing expectations. The Hawkeyes could always use another road win, and if that does happen, the Hoosiers will still need a little bit more to punch a ticket to the dance.
Oregon State at Stanford, 11:00, FS1: This is a classic bubble matchup. Both teams currently sit below .500 in Pac-12 play, and both currently need several wins to be legitimate contenders for March Madness. Stanford probably needs more help at 11-10, although a brutally tough schedule gives the Cardinal some leeway. Oregon State has come out of nowhere to sneak onto the bubble, and a road win against a fellow bubble team could go a long way toward thinning out the field. Clemson fans will probably find greater satisfaction in a Cardinal win, as opposed to a Beaver win.
If you haven’t already order your copy today of Guts & Glory – Tales of Clemson’s Historic 2015 Football Season to help you celebrate and remember this special season.
