ACC Baseball Championship Projections

As Clemson prepares to play a final weekend series at Notre Dame, plenty of questions remain, both for the Tigers and for the ACC as a whole. Few things are certain and much is still in upheaval as teams jockey for position in the league.

The top six spots for next week’s ACC Tournament—a term we use begrudgingly, as a format featuring two four-team divisions playing a round-robin schedule hardly qualifies as such—are the most coveted. Those six teams advance to pool play. The next four will play each other in a play-in round to fill the final two slots, while the final four teams in the league standings won’t make the cut.

Clemson isn’t guaranteed anything yet. Only four teams have already qualified for inclusion into the ten-team field, and only one team (Virginia Tech) has been eliminated.

That leaves nine teams for six slots, meaning two-thirds of the teams playing this weekend will end up making the field. The ACC Tournament will be shaped on the field in the regular season’s final moments, which is pretty cool after a long 56-game grind.

Here are the standings in the ACC heading into the final weekend of the regular season. If you notice, we won’t be looking at divisions because at this point, divisions are nothing more than a distraction that confuses the issue.

Miami (FL)*  19-6
Louisville*  19-8
Florida State*  15-8
Virginia* 16-11
N.C. State* 13-12
Clemson* 13-14
Wake Forest^ 13-14
Georgia Tech^ 12-14
North Carolina^ 12-15
Duke^ 12-15
Notre Dame 11-14
Boston College 11-14
Pittsburgh 10-16
Virginia Tech  6-21

*Qualifies for pool play

^Qualifies for play-in round

That’s the pecking order heading into the final slate of games. As you can see, Clemson is actually tied in the loss column with the team in 12th place. This is how much parity exists in the middle of the pack this season.

In an effort to untangle this mess, we’ll use the game-by-game projections from WarrenNolan.com to try to predict the outcomes of the weekend series. Most of the games feature somewhere around a 66-33 split between the teams, meaning the series will likely end with one team winning two out of three games. Here are their series projections:

Miami at Florida State MIA (66%) 2 out of 3
Louisville at Wake Forest UL (67%) 2 out of 3
Virginia Tech at Virginia UVA (83%) 3 out of 3
North Carolina at N.C. State NCST (57%) 2 out of 3
Clemson at Notre Dame CLEM (64%) 2 out of 3
Duke at Pittsburgh DU (65%) 2 out of 3
Boston College-Georgia Tech GT (59%) 2 out of 3

Only one team (Virginia) is expected to sweep, while four road teams are supposed to win series. While none of that would be shocking, there are chances for some home underdogs to alter these projections easily by defending their turf. Clemson fans, in particular, might be surprised that the Tigers are expected to win the series in South Bend.

If all of this happens as planned, here is how the final standings could look late Saturday night:

Miami (FL)*  21-7
Louisville*  21-9
Virginia* 19-11
Florida State* 16-10
N.C. State* 15-13
Clemson* 15-15
Wake Forest^ 14-16
Duke^ 14-16
Georgia Tech^ 14-16
North Carolina^ 13-17
Notre Dame 12-18
Boston College 12-18
Pittsburgh 11-18
Virginia Tech  6-24

*Qualifies for pool play

^Qualifies for play-in round

Not much changes in this scenario. Clemson maintains its hold on the sixth spot with no tiebreakers needed. This is the outcome everyone affiliated with Clemson baseball desires—staying inside of the top six to avoid playing on Tuesday in Durham.

Elsewhere in these projections, Virginia and Florida State swap places, while a three-way tie forms between Wake, Duke, and Georgia Tech. The Demon Deacons prevail because of a 2-1 record against Duke this season, while the Blue Devils (3-3) would best the Yellow Jackets (1-2) due to their combined records against the tied teams.

Obviously, much can change in a heartbeat in baseball. We saw Duke beat Florida State last week, which I’m pretty certain WarrenNolan.com didn’t predict. Updates to these scenarios will be coming fast and furious all weekend long as these teams attempt to control their respective destinies on diamonds all over the league.

TCI’s Clemson preseason magazine is now available.  Order your copy of Unfinished Business – An Insider Look at Clemson’s 2016 season today.

MayCover2016