It’s readily apparent for anyone with two eyes and a working brain that Dabo Swinney’s job is abundantly—if not completely and totally—secure at Clemson. The questions that surrounded his employment status for a few years have subsided, and not only does he get to enjoy a brand spanking new contract, but the athletic administration has seen fit to add building projects and program features that reflect his image.
Not all coaches are so fortunate, however. There are several coaches who will enter the 2016 season in a perilous position at their respective programs. Many of them will survive. Some will not. Here is my list of five coaches at Power 5 programs who will be fired in 2016, along with the final Saturday they will be employed:
Darrell Hazell, November 12th
There isn’t any positive momentum for Hazell in West Lafayette, even in a more-than-forgiving Big Ten West. He has only won six games in three seasons, including a miserable 2-22 record in conference play. Furthermore, Hazell has a new boss now—former Georgia Tech athletic director Mike Bobinski—that will likely not be too keen on giving him a fifth year unless a good bit goes right.
The Boilermakers do return a ton of starters from last season, but they weren’t any good then, either. Six of the ten losses Hazell’s team suffered in 2015 were by 17 points or more. Certainly the experience is reason for optimism, but things could go downhill quickly if a losing record accompanies Purdue into October.
Bobinski will probably let Hazell get to seven losses before he hands the fourth-year head coach his walking papers. That means a home game with Northwestern could be his last stand.
Kevin Sumlin, November 12th
The free-spirited culture that allowed Johnny Manziel to thrive at Texas A&M has blown up in Kevin Sumlin’s face since the disgraced former star left College Station. Five-star quarterback defections have plagued the program. Remember Kenny Hill, whose family trademarked a nickname for him after one measly start? He’s starting for TCU now. Kyle Allen and Skyler Murray followed him out the door, both with some parting words that painted a not-so-flattering picture of life inside the walls of Aggie football.
But wait, there’s more. A video emerged last fall featuring a man matching Sumlin’s description staggering through a hotel lobby in a drunken stupor and propped up by two other men. The ladies’ clinic fiasco happened this summer, in which assistants used highly inappropriate and suggestive comments to describe football activities in front of paying female customers. Another assistant had to be reprimanded for subtweeting recruits and subsequently drawing the ire of other recruits.
Quite simply, the inmates are running the asylum at Texas A&M, and Sumlin is responsible for all of it. The powers-that-be can’t possibly have a ton of extra patience with him, especially since his team has a combined 10-14 record in the SEC since Manziel left the program. A sixth loss to fellow rogue program Ole Miss at home could be the final nail in Sumlin’s coffin, but only if another incident that paints the institution in a negative light doesn’t force his ouster first.
Gus Malzahn, November 26th
Malzahn is in a similar situation to Sumlin, minus the outrageous misbehavior and entitlement. He experienced immediate success at Auburn, followed by a steep and precipitous decline. To be sure, Auburn is no stranger to this—Malzahn’s predecessor was Gene Chizik, the all-time “feast or famine” king in college coaching—but this is a bit different.
For starters, the Tigers’ primary issue a year ago was the offensive side of the ball. Specifically, it was the quarterback—Malzahn’s specialty. The man who molded Cam Newton and groomed Chad Morris hasn’t been able to figure out how to pick up ten yards in three plays nearly often enough recently. There doesn’t seem to be much depth on that side of the ball, but it doesn’t stop there. The defense, on its third coordinator in three seasons, has struggled to develop high-level players. Malzahn’s newest hire is Kevin Steele, whose arrival is sure to dramatically accelerate the fourth-year head coach’s descent toward unemployment.
Patience has never been plentiful on the Plains, so Malzahn had better pile up some wins quickly. The first five games are at home, but Auburn may be underdogs in three of them. If a couple of losses become laughers, a move could be made sooner rather than later. However, one factor could keep Malzahn employed until season’s end: It seems rather embarrassing to take an interim coach into a rivalry game with a vastly superior program like Alabama.
My gut says that keeps the brass at Auburn from officially announcing anything during the year, although this is the same school that attempted a clandestine rendezvous with Bobby Petrino to try and replace Tommy Tuberville while he still had a job not too long ago. Stay tuned.
Mark Stoops, November 26th
The SEC theme continues here in the Bluegrass State. Expectations wouldn’t be high for Stoops if he hadn’t been recruiting at a high level since he got to Lexington, then blowing opportunities to make bowl games with late-season collapses. The tenuous nature of his job isn’t really about a program shooting significantly higher, although a bowl game every four years—especially given this era in the SEC East—really doesn’t seem like that much to ask. It’s more about missing what should have been attainable bars in successive seasons.
In 2014, the Wildcats started 5-1 before losing six straight contests to close the regular season. The string of games was brutally tough, but the margins of victory suggested the team wasn’t even competing in most of them. A 4-1 start to last season was followed up with five consecutive defeats, a stretch that included a loss at Vanderbilt. In two seasons here is the list of teams Kentucky has defeated after October 1st: South Carolina, UL Monroe, Eastern Kentucky, Charlotte. That’s good enough for a record of 4-12.
Stoops has a talented young quarterback in Drew Barker, but Patrick Towles was a fine player in that role before him. He has Boom Williams in the backfield, but that’s not new, either. It’s hard to see how this team reverses such a clear trend in 2016. Six wins seems like the absolute maximum, but five seems more realistic, and another loss to rival Louisville with a bowl berth on the line will be the end of the line for Stoops at Kentucky.
Dana Holgorsen, December 3rd
There have seemingly been more perilous times for Holgorsen at West Virginia, but eventually, results have to pick up for him to survive. Holgorsen’s persona is well-known by now, as is his tendency to alienate others with his quirky personality and his reckless behavior. That and a disappointing won-loss mark since moving into the Big 12 has set his seat ablaze.
Hiring Holgorsen seemed to make West Virginia a perfect fit to compete in the Big 12, but the opposite has happened. After a ten-win season in 2011 as a member of the Big East, capped by a bowl win that need not be rehashed, the Mountaineers have gone a pedestrian 26-25 overall and 15-21 in conference play. A travel schedule that essentially doubles that of any other league foe in mileage could be to blame, but a roster that trends toward offense doesn’t travel as well as the alternative, anyway.
Much of the Mountaineers’ vaunted offense remains, but the defense is almost entirely new. That’s not exactly a recipe for success against the prolific offenses that pepper the Big 12 portion of the schedule. A solid rule of thumb has been to look at the home/away split and assign one win for every home game and one loss for every road game. That would leave West Virginia with another seven-win season and a sub-.500 mark in league play. After five seasons in the Big 12 and six overall, that’ll be the end of the line for Holgorsen.
Win or Else: Craig Bohl, Wyoming; Chris Creighton, Eastern Michigan; Dave Doeren, N.C. State; Paul Haynes, Kent State; Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech; Les Miles, LSU; Paul Petrine, Idaho; Ron Turner, FIU.
Heating Up: Steve Addazio, Boston College; David Beaty, Kansas; Mike MacIntyre, Colorado; Mike Riley, Nebraska; Charlie Strong, Texas.