As the college football season approaches, prediction time rapidly comes to a close. Picking win totals has become one of my favorite ways to organize my thoughts about the country as a whole, and what better way to package those thoughts than to take some over/unders?

South Point released numbers for every team in the nation back in late May, and I haven’t seen any better ones pop up since then that only take into account a 12-game schedule. Today, we’ll look at 15 teams I believe are destined to go over their respective win totals in 2016:

California over 4: This number undervalues Sonny Dykes’ ability to handle the loss of Jared Goff at quarterback. I have enough faith in his system to assume at least five wins, if not a bowl game.

Cincinnati over 6.5: Gunner Kiel is back to lead Tommy Tuberville’s offense. The Bearcats won seven games a year ago, and their biggest league games (Houston, South Florida, Memphis) are at home.

Fresno State over 3.5: This is a leap of faith in Tim DeRuyter’s wholesale staff changes to work out the kinks from a disastrous 2015 season.

Houston over 9.5: It’s really difficult to find three losses on Houston’s schedule, especially since the Cougars are trendy upset picks against both Oklahoma and Louisville.

Indiana over 4.5: Kevin Wilson’s offense is a plug-and-play system, even if quarterback is a question mark. The addition of former USF defensive coordinator Tom Allen should shore up that side of the ball and mean a second straight bowl trip.

Iowa over 8.5: I have no idea why this number is so low. I’m not that high on the Hawkeyes duplicating last season’s success, and I still have them going 10-2 with that soft schedule.

Miami (FL) over 6.5: Mark Richt’s presence, along with an attacking mindset from Manny Diaz, should feel exciting for the Canes. Brad Kaaya won’t lose half of his games under center.

North Carolina over 8.5: Larry Fedora has preferred Mitch Turbisky all along, and now he gets him as the starting quarterback. Even if Gene Chizik’s defense regresses, this team isn’t going anywhere.

Notre Dame over 9.5: I can’t think of a single team since the NCAA moved to a 12-game schedule that has only played three true road games. The Irish should be favored in two of those three.

Ohio State over 9.5: So many players have left, and yet, no one else on the schedule can match the talent on this roster. Last season was a disappointment, and the Buckeyes still beat this number.

Penn State over 6.5: With nine returning starters on offense and a refresh with a new quarterback, I assume James Franklin will get this squad to at least seven wins—and probably more than that.

USF over 8.5: The departure at DC mentioned above is troubling, but the offense returns all relevant parts and should be much improved. I see ten wins in rising star Willie Taggart’s future.

Toledo over 6.5: Matt Campbell left his post for Iowa State, but his system is still in place with Jason Candle taking over the reins. This is still a premier football team in the MAC.

UTEP over 5: With 15 returning starters, a proven offensive coordinator in Brent Pease, and a newly-healthy roster, there’s no reason to believe this team can’t eclipse last season’s 5-7 mark.

Washington State over 7.5: The Luke Falk-Gabe Marks connection should be a nightmare for Pac-12 opponents. This team should have won more than eight games a year ago, and there’s no reason to believe regression is imminent.