Yesterday, we took a look at some of the teams we thought might go over their respective win totals as the South Point sports book sees them. Taking a lot of “overs” is a bit risky given the amount of luck involved in success and the different ways in which a season can go awry. Many smart gamblers will take more “under” bets since those are more easily calculated when projecting over the course of an entire season.
But I’m just young and naïve enough to buck conventional wisdom. After throwing out 15 “overs” yesterday, here are nine “unders” that could prove quite valuable (for entertainment purposes only, of course) in the weeks and months to come:
Boston College under 6.5: Losing Don Brown as defensive coordinator is a massive blow for BC. The offense should be improved with Patrick Towles at quarterback, but Brown is one of the nation’s best. It’ll be tough for the Eagles to make a bowl game.
BYU under 8: Kilani Sitake was the right choice to replace Bronco Mendenhall, but he is still a first-year head coach. An unforgiving slate of games will make 6-6 seem like an accomplishment for this veteran bunch with two outstanding quarterbacks.
UCF under 5: Nothing about UCF’s winless 2015 season was normal, so it’s highly unlikely to happen again. However, we don’t see five-win improvements from one season to the next very often. Scott Frost has an uphill climb ahead of him.
Missouri under 5.5: When your athletic director leaves for Baylor, you know something isn’t right where you are. Barry Odom’s defense should be fine, and the offense should be better, but that doesn’t mean more victories will follow.
Nebraska under 8.5: Mike Riley is just flat out uninspiring. The Cornhuskers won only six games a year ago (albeit under fluky circumstances), and even with several key pieces returning, they may have to sweep at home—including a game against Oregon—to offset the effects of a brutal road slate.
Oregon State under 3.5: This number is incredibly low, but Oregon State is far and away the worst team in the Pac-12. It’s hard to see the Beavers sweeping non-league games at Minnesota and against Boise State, then finding a conference win is even harder.
Purdue under 4.5: Darrell Hazell is probably a dead man walking. The Boilermakers return a slew of starters, but the talent level of those returners simply isn’t high enough to lead resurgence in West Lafayette.
Rutgers under 4.5: New coach Chris Ash has quite a pedigree as a defensive assistant, but he will need some time to untangle the mess left behind by the previous staff. Doing it in the Big Ten East will be even more difficult this season.
Western Kentucky under 8.5: Replacing Brandon Doughty at quarterback won’t be easy. The Hilltoppers have to play their three toughest C-USA opponents—Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Middle Tennessee—on the road. I smell a little bit of regression here.