Third-ranked Clemson will face off against No. 18 Virginia Tech in Orlando, Florida with a chance to successfully defend its ACC title for the first time in 28 years.
Here are five numbers to note as kickoff for today’s 8 p.m. game approaches.
17: Fumbles lost by Virginia Tech this season. Only Louisville (21) has given away more fumbles in 2016. Frank Beamer’s teams used to pride themselves on special teams prowess and winning the turnover battle, but over the past several seasons, that aura has dissipated. Justin Fuente inherited a team that lost a whopping nine fumbles in its first two games, and after a period of better ball security, the Hokies have begun to lay the ball down freely once again. In its final three contests, Virginia Tech’s offense has lost five fumbles—and that was after it only lost three over a seven-game stretch. During those three games, the Hokies have committed eight of their 22 turnovers for the season, and now they will face a Clemson defense that ranks inside the nation’s top 30 with 22 takeaways.
51.3: Third-down conversion rate for Clemson’s offense. That percentage leads the ACC and ranks seventh nationally. Only eight teams have converted at least half the time, so the Tigers are in elite company. On the flip side, Virginia Tech’s defense ranks fifth in the country in third down defense, as the Hokies’ opponents convert only 26.8 percent of the time. Only seven teams stop opponents more than 70 percent of the time, and the Hokies and Tigers are both on that list. Virginia Tech’s offense ranks in the middle of the pack, so it’s assumed that Clemson’s defense will be able to get off the field. What happens when Clemson’s offense faces third downs could directly impact who wins and loses the ACC Championship.
69: Combined margin of victory for Clemson in its last three meetings with Virginia Tech. Prior to 2011, the Hokies had won seven consecutive games against the Tigers, but Clemson emphatically turned the tables in 2011. The Tigers left Blacksburg with a 23-3 win on October 1 that capped a trifecta of wins so historically significant that the stretch is immortalized on the first floor of the football offices. They followed that up with an ever more dominating 38-10 pounding of the Hokies in the ACC title game—the only win Clemson enjoyed in its final four games that year. The next season, Virginia Tech came to Death Valley and left with a 38-17 loss. Saturday will be the first time since then that the two teams have met.
157.5: Quarterback rating for Virginia Tech’s Jerod Evans. The junior college transfer has been efficient as a passer this season, accounting for 3,045 yards and 26 touchdowns through the air and only throwing five interceptions. That quarterback rating is third-best in the ACC, behind only Nathan Peterman (161.2) and Mitch Trubisky (161.0) and just ahead of fourth-place Deshaun Watson (153.4). Evans isn’t a one-trick pony, however. He also ranks tenth in the ACC in rushing—second among quarterbacks—with 713 yards. At almost 240 pounds, Evans is a load to bring down, and his running style compares favorably to that of Tajh Boyd. His skill set will present a unique challenge for Clemson’s defense.
252: Average rushing yards for Clemson over its last two games. After all but abandoning the run against Pittsburgh, the Tigers have sought to reclaim their collective identity in the aftermath of a loss. For the season, Clemson’s offense has only averaged 172.3 rushing yards per game—more than fifty yards fewer than it did a year ago. Wake Forest and South Carolina are essentially average rushing defenses compared to the rest of the country, so being able to run the ball at will doesn’t seem like a monumental feat. The Hokies are only slightly better than the Demon Deacons (within ten yards per game) as a run defense, so the Tigers may be able to open up some lanes for Wayne Gallman and the other backs once again on Saturday.