As expected, I have been getting a lot of questions about Clemson’s chances to knock off Alabama in Monday’s College Football Playoff Championship Game in Tampa, Florida. Obviously, the main one is can the Tigers win it?
My answer is yes they can, and I say that confidently. Clemson actually has a better chance this year of winning the game than it did last year, and it isn’t just because of Deshaun Watson.
There is no doubt that Alabama’s defense is the best in the country, and you can make a strong argument it might be the best head coach Nick Saban has had there. They are big, mean and physical.
They are like a bunch of gnats on a hot summer day in the deep-south while working out in the yard. They just won’t go away no matter how many times you swat your hand. They just keep coming at you from all angles.
The only way to keep them from bugging you is to just accept it and battle through it. Well, in a way, that is how you beat Alabama’s defense. You know they are going to try to intimidate you with their size and speed so you just accept it, and you try to work around it. They’re going to make their plays, you just have to figure a way to stay focused and not let them bug you so much you step away from what you like to do.
But as good and as intimidating as the Crimson Tide is on defense, that’s not the case on the offensive side of the ball and that’s where this Alabama team is vulnerable. Though they are undefeated and pretty much have run roughshod over every opponent they have played, this Alabama team is not as complete as the one that beat the Tigers last season.
Like last year, Alabama likes to run the football. Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris are going to get the football, there is no doubt. The Crimson Tide is ranked 11th nationally in running the ball and Scarbrough is coming off a 180-yard performance in the Peach Bowl against Washington, an all-time Alabama record for a bowl game.
It was an impressive performance, because Washington takes pride in stopping the run and they just could not stop Scarbrough, especially when they got worn down late in the game.
Clemson takes pride in stopping the run as well and the one thing defensive coordinator Brent Venables likes to do is take away what the other team does best. He forces them to beat the Tigers another way. That’s what he did against Ohio State, another team that likes to run the football, and the Buckeyes could not get it done.
Venables slowed down Alabama’s running game last year, limiting it to 138 yards and to just 3.0 yards per carry. He forced ‘Bama to beat them another way, and it did. Quarterback Jake Coker threw for 335 yards on 16 of 25 passing and had two touchdowns, despite being sacked five times.
Coker got just enough time and was comfortable enough standing in the pocket to look down field and get the ball to his playmakers. Clemson’s defensive game plan worked, but Alabama was balanced just enough to make the plays it had to in order to win the game.
That’s not the case this year. Though Jalen Hurts is more athletic than Coker was even close to being—rushing for 891 yards and 12 touchdowns—he isn’t as good of a passer as Coker was, especially when it comes to keeping his eyes downfield and finding the open receivers.
Hurts has been sacked 24 times and has lost 202 yards this year. Alabama is averaging just 214.2 yards a game through the air. Hurts, who does have 22 touchdown passes, is averaging just 189.2 yards per game.
In the last four games, Alabama has failed to reach 400 yards in three of those games, and in the last six games it has not totaled 400 yards four times. Why? It has not been able to throw the ball with any consistency.
Though Alabama rushed for 269 yards and averaged more than 5.0 yards per carry against Washington, it threw for just 57 as Hurts was just 7 of 14 in the game. That’s not going to work against Clemson.
This is the reason why I think Clemson has a very good chance at winning this game. However, that will depend on how the Tigers take care of the football, too.
If Clemson takes care of the football and handles the gnats known as Alabama’s defense and does not allow them to score a defensive touchdown, which seems like they have done in just about every game, than the Tigers chances of winning greatly increase as the game goes along.
Clemson has the more balanced team in this game. They have the quarterback and the playmakers on offense to counter Alabama’s defense just enough. On the other side of the ball, the defense is good enough and deep enough to slow down Alabama’s run game and force Hurts to beat them with his arm.
We all know the phrase, “Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships.” Well, in this case Clemson’s offense has sold tickets all year, but as we have seen Clemson is playing for a championship because it has a top 10 nationally ranked defense, too.
Alabama’s defense has got it back to the national championship, but its offense has not sold any tickets and to win a national championship you need both.
Clemson will win the national championship on Monday night because it has both.