Last season, the Clemson baseball team won an ACC Championship and hosted a regional for the first time since 2011. It was a quality start to the Monte Lee era, even better than people expected in his first season.
So what is realistic to expect from the program in Lee’s second season as the Tigers’ head coach? What should the season look like from a fan’s perspective?
Last season’s squad wasn’t the best in the ACC. In fact, it felt like Lee and his staff were picking up wins with smoke and mirrors some of the time. A revolving door weekend rotation, sketchy defense in spots, reliance on multi-inning appearances from Pat Krall out of the bullpen—all of it made every game seemingly teeter on the edge of both victory and defeat. There was very little margin for error.
Winning the tournament title in the league may have masked some of these issues. Therefore, saying the team should be improved “after winning an ACC Championship” jumps to some logical conclusions that may not accurately portray the nature of last season’s accomplishments. That also doesn’t mean expectations shouldn’t be pretty high for this team.
Of the seven regular starters from last year’s squad, the Tigers return four. Three-fourths of the team’s starts on the mound return, as well. Two of Clemson’s three All-America selections—Seth Beer and Krall—are back, and the roster is still young. Only six of the 39 players listed on Clemson’s athletic website are entering their respective final seasons of eligibility.
Plenty of additional depth remains, and Clemson has added some new faces that are sure to provide excitement. Shortstop Logan Davidson’s expectations may rival Beer’s from last year. Graduate transfers Weston Jackson (Presbyterian College) and Tyler Jackson (USC Upstate) should contribute a great deal. Same goes for junior college transfer Patrick Cromwell at the hot corner, as well as an abundance of others who will get assorted shots to log innings on the mound.
In 2016, Clemson went 38-18 overall in the regular season. That’s about what a reasonable expectation for the Tigers should be in a given year—in my estimation, at least. The Tigers were 16-14 in the ACC, 25-17 in weekend games, and 13-1 in midweek contests.
It doesn’t seem like too much to ask for the Tigers to average a series victory each weekend. That would put them at 28-14 counting both conference and non-conference series and 20-10 in ACC play. It also seems reasonable to expect a 10-4 mark—just better than two wins for every loss—in midweek games given the unpredictable nature of many of those matchups.
Any downturn in any of those win-loss categories must be met with an equal and opposite reaction in another category. That’s what happened last season, when the Tigers’ struggles during weekend series—particularly in league play—were offset by an almost-perfect mark during midweek games.
It seems likely that Clemson wins more regular season games—maybe in the 40-42 range—and doesn’t defend its ACC Tournament title considering the somewhat random nature of the round robin format. Even the minimum 38 victories in a loaded ACC should be enough to host a regional for a second consecutive season.
Even the most pessimistic observer would have a hard time predicting a slide for the Tigers, though issues may persist all year. Krall’s role may fluctuate once again, although he will start the year in the weekend rotation. Losing Chris Okey at catcher is a huge loss. Question marks remain with Beer’s role in the field and with defensive options at second base and in the corner outfield. The new pitchers need to be strike-throwers.
Those concerns don’t dampen the optimism for the upcoming season, however. Fans may not even notice them if the strengths of the program—power, depth, plate discipline—manifest themselves as prominently as expected.
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