It’s become en vogue to re-rank the 16 teams remaining in the field after the opening weekend of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. Everybody does it now, and since I’m technically part of “everybody” and like to watch and analyze basketball, it makes sense for me to give it a shot.
My formula was simple. I ranked the teams based upon a rough combination of three different factors—pre-tournament opinion, first weekend performance, and potential to win the whole thing. Some weighed more heavily than others for certain teams, which makes this list both fun and nonsensical to a certain extent.
Also, your bracket is destroyed, so you need to re-calibrate prior to the beginning of the Sweet 16, when most of you will probably find joy rooting like heck for Baylor and whoever might potentially face South Carolina next.
Here is my list of the remaining college hoops teams, from best to worst:
- Kansas
The Jayhawks get the top spot as the best combination of talent and performance from the first weekend. They destroyed UC Davis and beat Michigan State by 20. Those results were probably both expected, but they get the nod over some of the other contenders that struggled a bit with either game. Josh Jackson is good enough to carry Kansas to a title if Frank Mason and the supporting cast gives him help, and the road to Phoenix isn’t overly difficult, either.
- Arizona
No one wants to face the Wildcats right now. They scored 100 points against North Dakota, and Sean Miller was unhappy about how they guarded. Then they methodically pulled away from St. Mary’s, a much better team than most recognized due to their low seeding. The absence of Alonzo Trier has skewed the analytics down for Arizona, but this is a truly dangerous team that has only lost twice in its last 28 games. It also has a cupcake Sweet 16 matchup with the bottom team on this list.
- Gonzaga
I just think Gonzaga is really good. This doesn’t have much to do with how the Bulldogs played against South Dakota State or Northwestern. They have depth and balance and star power and a super lead guard in Nigel Williams-Goss. Matchups with West Virginia are insanely tough to figure out, but I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if Gonzaga ends up in Phoenix.
- Kentucky
The toughest matchup, relative to seeding, in the second round was Kentucky’s tilt with analytics darling Wichita State. It was completely unfair for the Wildcats to have to play the Shockers that early, and both teams felt the effects. Because of the pressure of being a higher seed in that situation, I have deep respect for how Kentucky weathered the storm and advanced. John Calipari’s team may be peaking right now.
- North Carolina
Yes, the Tar Heels nearly managed to gag up a massive lead against a nondescript Arkansas team, but they also closed the game on a 12-0 run to slam the door shut. I picked North Carolina before the tournament because they had no perceptible weakneses, and I still feel that way. They destroyed Texas Southern before the Razorbacks pushed them. The only question mark at this point is Joel Berry’s health, but even then, I wouldn’t bet against them.
- Butler
You could make the argument (and I will) that Butler had the most consistent weekend of any team not expected to cut down the nets. The Bulldogs beat Winthrop by 12 in a game that was more like a 20-plus-point beatdown, then they dropped Cinderella with a killer right hook by easily dispatching Middle Tennessee. This team looks really confident right now. If Berry isn’t at full strength, the Heels could be in trouble.
- Purdue
Purdue looked outstanding against Vermont to snap its zillion-game winning streak, then it fell off a bit in nearly blowing a big lead late against Iowa State. Still, the combination of perimeter prowess and interior dominance (not to mention the all-around studliness of Caleb Swanigan) should make the Boilermakers a candidate to win the next four games. Even though I picked Butler one spot ahead, I’d say this is the team to watch from the 4-line moving forward.
- Wisconsin
It seems disrespectful to rank the Badgers this low after they knocked off the defending national champs. Still, a win over Villanova in a singular game doesn’t answer all the questions with this team. Wisconsin is prone to long scoring droughts and lacks significant inside play with its undersized front line. Give Greg Gard his due, though. This was an underseeded team that has looked the part so far.
- UCLA
At some point, an elite tournament team will prove it can defend for large stretches of play. UCLA still hasn’t done that, although it did push 80 points against a very stingy Cincinnati defensive squad in the second round. Lonzo Ball is a stud, and with Bryce Alford and T.J. Leaf playing well, the Bruins look like a team that can win it all. Defense and the toughest remaining bracket, however, will make it a tall task.
- West Virginia
It’s hard not to be impressed with what the Mountaineers just did to Notre Dame. That win was one of the best of the tournament so far, helping replace some of the good will lost by an underwhelming win over Bucknell in the first round. The reason Bob Huggins’ team can’t be any higher on my list is their style of play. “Press Virginia” will go only as far as its style allows. At some point, foul trouble, free throws, or general inefficiency in the half court will be its downfall.
- Michigan
This is the toughest team to read. The Wolverines are the feel-good story of the postseason, winning the Big Ten after a scary plane incident and carrying that momentum into the Big Dance. It is as explosive an offensive team as there is in the tournament field. Sunday’s head-turning upset win over Louisville followed up a high-octane win over fellow offensive juggernaut Oklahoma State. You have to think this carriage will turn into a pumpkin at some point, but the ride is fun for now.
- South Carolina
The Gamecocks are the worst team left at scoring the ball by leaps and bounds—and yet, here we are. Frank Martin’s team has averaged 59.5 points in the second half of its two tournament wins against Marquette and Duke. They won’t have a quasi-home crowd to buoy them in New York, but the defensive energy they bring to the floor is contagious and has the potential to carry them farther. Also, Sindarius Thornwell is an actual star, not just the best player on a pretty good team. He might be the best player in the tournament.
- Baylor
I’ve hated Baylor all year. Wait, that’s not true. I’ve hated Baylor for years and years. Their defense is weird, particularly when they go to a zone that basically cedes 85 feet of the court to the opposition. They have lots of athletes but never quite seem to get it together as a unit on the offensive end. This year, a favorable draw has gotten them this far, but the Bears seem a far cry from the team that spent some time atop the polls this season.
- Florida
I should probably rank Florida higher. After all, they won two games after I had them going out to East Tennessee State. However, based on the matchup, that pick was a mistake, and Virginia has proven perfectly capable of going AWOL offensively on its own free will. The Gators seem like a team that has played well but has benefited greatly from a favorable pair of opponents. Plus, John Egbunu still isn’t back, so Florida’s lack of interior presence remains an issue.
- Oregon
Much like Florida, a major injury has the Ducks far down on my list, possibly unfairly so. It’s hard to get past how vitally important Chris Boucher is to the DNA of this team, though. He blocks shots at an impressive rate on a team that leads the country in blocked shot rate. I’m not bullish at all on the Ducks moving forward without him, even though Dillon Brooks and Tyler Dorsey were magnificent down the stretch against Rhode Island.
- Xavier
Somebody has to be last. It’s the Musketeers, who still don’t have Edmond Sumner in the lineup. When your best player isn’t playing—even given wins over top-six seeds in Maryland and Florida State—there’s an expiration date for your season that’s rapidly approaching. Still, props to Chris Mack for getting this far. Nobody would have blamed this team for exiting quickly in the tournament, but that second-round beatdown of Florida State was as shocking as any result.
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