Clemson will return to action next week after its open date. What will be the Tigers’ most difficult games when they do?
The home stretch is awaiting Clemson, which made it through its first eight games as one of six remaining unbeatens in the FBS. The Tigers will likely need to stay that way if they plan on making it back to the College Football Playoff after last year’s absence.
That task starts with a trip to Notre Dame next Saturday followed by three consecutive home games to end the regular season. The Clemson Insider is ranking the difficulty of the Tigers’ remaining schedule starting with what should be the least difficult, at least on paper, based on quality of opponent, location and matchups.
Nov. 19 vs. Miami (3-4, 1-2 ACC)
Miami was a sexy preseason pick to contend for the ACC’s Coastal Division title. Instead, the Hurricanes are trying to avoid finishing in the bottom half of the standings in Mario Cristobal’s first season at the helm. Miami has lost four of its last five games, allowed 40-plus points to Middle Tennessee State and Duke and aren’t giving quarterback Tyler Van Dyke and the passing game much help on the ground with a running game that ranks 95th nationally (130 yards per game).
That lack of balance has kept Miami from scoring more than 24 points against a Power Five opponent this season, and it isn’t going to work against a Clemson run defense that ranks seventh nationally. If Clemson is able to take the running game away and make Miami’s offense as predictable as it’s been for much of the season, that doesn’t figure to help the Hurricanes’ issues holding onto the ball either. Only Virginia has committed more turnovers in the ACC than Miami (16). If Clemson plays clean football, this is a game the Tigers should win rather comfortably at a stadium where it’s won 38 consecutive times.
Nov. 26 vs. South Carolina (5-2, 2-2 SEC)
Shane Beamer deserves a lot of credit for what he’s done in Columbia in just two seasons, and it felt a little strange to put this game in the bottom half of this list considering Carolina is (for now) the last ranked team on Clemson’s schedule. But taking a closer look at the Gamecocks’ body of work to this point, their best wins have come against a Kentucky team that played a backup quarterback and, most recently, a reeling Texas A&M team that’s lost three straight and four of its last six, including that September shocker to Appalachian State.
Carolina is stingy against the pass, allowing the 23rd-fewest passing yards in the country. Question is, can a defense on the other end of the spectrum when it comes to stopping the run (97th nationally) force a sporadic Clemson passing game to have to throw the ball enough for it to matter? Nothing about the Gamecocks’ offense is all that scary either, particularly behind center. Opposing teams better have elite quarterback play if they hope to get out of Memorial Stadium with a win, and with eight interceptions and just five touchdown passes through seven games, Spencer Rattler has been anything but.
And if you think Miami’s turnovers problems are bad, Carolina has been even worse with its minus-6 turnover margin that ranks 118th nationally. That’s not a good recipe when trying to knock off Clemson at home, where the Tigers have beaten Carolina by an average of 29.3 points during their seven-game winning streak over their in-state rival.
Nov. 12 vs. Louisville (4-3, 2-3 ACC)
Louisville hasn’t been great this year either, though the Cardinals have won three of their last four games after a 1-2 start. That’s quelled some of the hot-seat chatter around fourth-year coach Scott Satterfield at the moment, though with upcoming games against Wake Forest and James Madison, it could certainly start ramping up again by the time Louisville makes it to Clemson early next month. The Cardinals have been inconsistent on defense, ranking 25th in the FBS in points allowed and yet allowing nearly 450 yards to the ACC’s worst offense in a loss at Boston College.
But while we’re on the subject of quarterback play, Louisville has someone Miami and Carolina don’t: Malik Cunningham. The Cardinals’ veteran signal caller puts fear in every defense he plays with his dual-threat ability. Cunningham is the Cardinals’ leading rusher at 6.3 yards per carry and has already scored nine times on the ground. Curious about his ability to produce like that against an elite defense? Look no further than Clemson’s latest run-in with Cunningham when he ran wild last season against the Tigers (134 yards, two rushing TDs), who needed a goal-line stand to survive Cunningham’s heroics in that game.
Cunningham is completing just 60% of his passes this season and has nearly as many interceptions (4) as touchdown passes (5), so making him a pocket passer is the key. But as the Tigers found out last year, that’s much easier said than done.
Nov. 5 at Notre Dame (4-3)
Every opponent left on Clemson’s schedule already has multiple losses, so there’s not a marquee game remaining from a record standpoint. But when you combine all the factors at play here, including this being Clemson’s last road game, this one looks like the biggest threat to the Tigers’ perfect regular season. Clemson has to be careful not to get caught up in the mystique of its surroundings playing in the shadows of Touchdown Jesus, particularly with a group of freshmen and sophomores that have never played there before.
More importantly, Clemson’s offense will have to stay away from the turnovers that plagued it against Syracuse and execute against a defense that hasn’t been the issue for Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish haven’t allowed more than 26 points in any of their three losses, and the run defense, while far from a brick wall, has had its moments (134 yards allowed per game). Clemson’s running game has started to find its stride lately, but if the Tigers have trouble on the ground and have to rely more on a passing game that’s lacked consistency of late, things could get interesting in South Bend.
It’s hard to envision Notre Dame and its 100th-ranked passing offense scoring enough to pull off the upset, but next week would be a good time for Clemson to put together that complete game it’s been waiting for all season just to be sure.
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