ESPN recently published an article (subscription required) on breakout NFL players for the upcoming campaign, forecasting the next crop of stars in the league.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell broke down his projected breakout players into several different tiers, including the category of “Pro Bowlers to Superstars” — as Barnwell described it, players who are considered stars already but have the potential to become first-team All-Pros.
Of the three players in that group, two of them are Clemson pros, including Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
Lawrence struggled in his rookie season under former Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer. But in 2022, the 2021 No. 1 overall draft pick made huge strides and shined with Doug Pederson in his first year as Jacksonville’s head coach. Lawrence completed 66.3 percent of his passes for 4,113 yards and 25 touchdowns with eight interceptions while leading the Jaguars to the AFC South title and a playoff victory in his second NFL season.
After throwing for only 10 touchdowns with six interceptions over the first eight games of the 2022 regular season – including a two-interception performance against the Denver Broncos in London in Week 8 – Lawrence passed for 15 touchdowns with only two picks over the final nine games of the regular season.
“For a year and a half, Lawrence struggled to live up to the expectations placed on him as one of the top quarterback prospects of the past decade,” Barnwell wrote. “There was an Urban Meyer-sized explanation for his rookie season in 2021, but he still seemed to be adjusting during the first half of last season…
“Lawrence’s first postseason trip wasn’t exactly smooth — he threw five interceptions in games against the Chargers and Chiefs — but he did coax another dramatic comeback out of his offense in the home wild-card win. Now, with wide receiver Calvin Ridley added to the mix and another full offseason away from the Meyer era, he has the ability to improve on the player we saw in the second half of 2022. Lawrence is currently eighth in the MVP odds at Caesars Sportsbook and seems capable of something special in Year 3.”
The other former Tiger in Barnwell’s breakout tier of “Pro Bowlers to Superstars” is cornerback A.J. Terrell.
Terrell is entering his fourth season with the Atlanta Falcons after being selected by the franchise with the 16th overall pick in the 2020 draft.
A 2021 second-team All-Pro, Terrell has posted 202 tackles, 32 passes defended, four interceptions, four forced fumbles and a fumble recovery in 44 career games (all starts).
“To close observers, Terrell already had his breakout season in 2021,” Barnwell wrote. “The 2020 first-round pick looked spectacular on tape and by the numbers, as he allowed a passer rating of just 61.0 in coverage, per Pro Football Reference, despite playing behind the league’s worst pass rush. I was convinced by what I saw and named him a first-team All-Pro on my year-end list, placing him ahead of stars Jalen Ramsey and Marshon Lattimore.”
After tallying 81 total tackles, 16 pass breakups and three interceptions in 2021 (all career highs), Terrell recorded nine pass breakups, a fumble recovery and 47 total tackles last season. While it wasn’t as strong of a season for Terrell compared to the previous one, it’s worth noting that he battled a hamstring injury that caused him to miss a few games.
“Terrell wasn’t bad in 2022, but the results weren’t the same,” Barnwell wrote. “He gave up two touchdown passes in the Week 1 opener to Saints receiver Michael Thomas and finished the season allowing six scores, which doubled his total from the prior season. Opposing quarterbacks posted a passer rating just north of 102 against him, up by more than 40 points. There wasn’t much of a pass rush again from the Falcons, but Terrell slipped by his own lofty standards.”
Atlanta picked up Terrell’s fifth-year option in late April, keeping him in a Falcons uniform and off the free agent market until after the 2024 season.
“Finally, though, he is getting help,” Barnwell wrote. “The Falcons brought in as many as seven new starters on the defensive side of the ball this offseason… If Terrell and Grady Jarrett don’t have to put the defense solely on their backs in 2023, it might unlock a new level from the fourth-year pro. I wouldn’t be surprised if Terrell were the best cornerback in the NFC in 2023.”
One other former Clemson standout, defensive end Clelin Ferrell, made Barnwell’s list as a post-hype breakout candidate.
Ferrell agreed to a one-year deal with the San Francisco 49ers in March after spending the first four seasons of his NFL career with the Raiders.
A 2019 first-round pick (fourth overall), Ferrell has struggled to live up to the hype that surrounded him when he was selected as a top draft choice, but he has flashed his talent and pass rush ability from time to time and had his best overall professional season as a rookie back in 2019, when he recorded 38 total tackles, 4.5 sacks, eight tackles for loss and five passes defended, all of which are still career highs.
Ferrell made some contributions during his fourth season with the Raiders in 2022, playing 494 snaps over 16 games (four starts) and posting eight quarterback hits with 13 total pressures.
“Ferrell is on a one-year deal for $2.5 million, but it seems inevitable that the team will get more out of him than what we saw in Las Vegas,” Barnwell wrote. “The 49ers added a premium defensive tackle in free agency when they signed away Javon Hargrave from the Eagles, but Ferrell will likely figure in as an edge defender on early downs and mix in taking snaps on the interior in obvious passing situations. He will compete with 2022 second-rounder Drake Jackson for playing time across from Nick Bosa, but don’t be shocked if he finishes the year looking like a bargain.”
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