Breaking Down Clemson’s First Weekend Possibilities in NCAA Tournament

CLEMSON – The stage is set for the No. 6 seeded Clemson Tigers, headed to Memphis for the NCAA Tournament. It’s a date with the No. 11 seed New Mexico Lobos for survival in the West Region.

It’s polar opposites in how the two teams ended their season. Clemson(21-11) had the wheels fall off, losing three of its last four and failing to win a game in the ACC Tournament. New Mexico won four games in four days at the Mountain West Tournament to finish 26-9 and secure an automatic bid into March Madness.

“This is a year where every time it seems we play somebody, they’re on a three, four game win streak. Five, six, seven, eight, whatever it’s been and obviously they just won the Mountain West so they’re playing with great confidence,” Head coach Brad Brownell said.

NET rankings favor the lower seed as the Lobos are No. 22 with a Quad 4 loss and a 5-6 record in Quad 1. The Tigers are No. 35 and the 5-5 record in Quad 2 is an anchor on Clemson’s standing.

New Mexico plays fast with the No. 8 tempo according to KenPom. That engine is driven by their three guards who all score in double-digits. Senior Jaelen House leads the Lobos, averaging 16.1 points per game, adding 3.5 assists and a rebounds a night. He earned first-team All-Mountain West honors.

Behind him is Jamal Mashburn Jr., a fellow senior who averages 14.4 points. Donovan Dent rounds out the trio and the sophomore scores 14.3 points per game but leads the offense’s rhythm with 5.6 assists a night. Brownell said he hasn’t “seen much” of New Mexico but the guard play stands out with speed and athleticism.

“They’ve got terrific guards, older players. No surprise that they were able to do something like that. Richard’s always been a really good coach and a really good offensive coach,” Brownell said.

Richard Pitino is a coaching matchup Brownell has seen before when he was leading Minnesota. Looking at specifically this season, there’s a common matchup with Boise State. The Tigers dominated the Broncos 85-68, a team that defeated the Lobos twice in conference play before falling in the conference tournament.

Clemson’s strength has remained its interior and it won’t have an easy task. Freshman JT Toppin is averaging nearly a double-double with 12.5 points and nine rebounds. Jack Clark, who has quietly been the catalyst for the Tigers’ success will have to guard on the perimeter and his success could lead to a win in Memphis.

Should the Tigers advance to the Round of 32, it will face the winner of No. 3 seed Baylor and No. 14 seed Colgate. Brownell is on record criticizing the Big 12 on multiple occasions this season, so a matchup with one of its best in the Bears would be a chance to set the record straight. Let’s go out on a limb and say Scott Drew’s team would be the draw barring some madness, pun intended.

Fielding a top-10 offense, there’s options all around the floor with six players averaging double figures. It’s why Baylor has the No. 8 offense on KenPom. A similar story inside to the Lobos with a freshman inside and it’s Yves Missi averaging 11.1 points per game on 62 percent from the floor.

Defense hasn’t been the same for Clemson in 2024, but Brownell said the team has taken strides throughout the season. This would be a matchup challenging everyone on the Tigers to play at its best on that end.

For that to occur, Clemson has to handle business in the Round of 64. The Tigers take on the Lobos Friday at 3:10 p.m., televised on truTV.