In an episode of his Always College Football show, ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy weighed in on the percent chance that various third-year head coaches can win a national championship at their respective schools – including former Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables.

In his first two years at Oklahoma, Venables has gone 16-10 overall, including a 10-8 mark in the Big 12. The Sooners finished the 2023 season with a 10-3 record (7-2 Big 12) and lost to Arizona in the Alamo Bowl, following Venables’ first season as Oklahoma’s head coach in 2022 when his team went 6-7 (3-6 Big 12) and lost to Florida State in the Cheez-It Bowl.

Now, Venables and the Sooners are about to embark on their first season in the SEC in 2024, coinciding with the first season of the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff format.

Taking everything into consideration, McElroy put the likelihood of Venables winning a natty at Oklahoma at 10 percent. Here’s everything McElroy had to say in his explanation of that percent chance:

“Year 1, not great. Year 2, much better. 16-10 overall, 10-8 in the Big 12. Has not been to a Big 12 title game. But Oklahoma has won seven national championships, their last one coming nearly 25 years ago back in the year 2000. I remember it vividly. But how many times has Oklahoma been in the mix, whether it’s playoff berths, whether it’s BCS championship game appearances. They were in one in ’08, they were in one in 2004. They’ve been a fixture in the national spotlight for quite some time.

“What I am really interested in with Brent Venables, and I’m really frankly interested in with Oklahoma, is how capable is Oklahoma, right now, at competing in the Southeastern Conference? Because I really like Oklahoma this year. I’ve said that before. I think their talent’s good on all three levels defensively. I think they have a good quarterback (Jackson Arnold). It might take a little time before he becomes a star, but he’s got the talent to do so, and I really think they have great wide receivers. I think (Deion) Burks is about to absolutely blow the world away there at wide receiver. So, I’m very optimistic about what Oklahoma is going to be, I just think the schedule this year is outrageously difficult. Really, really tough.

“So, I look at everything – and people are probably going to say oh, well that’s a really low number – I think the likelihood of winning a national championship at Oklahoma right now for Brent Venables is 10 percent, which to me feels like a pretty good number. Because right now, if I were to rank the SEC one through 16 heading into ’24, I have Oklahoma somewhere in the middle, which means they’re probably in the vicinity of an 8-4, 7-5 football team. In order to get to the playoff, I think you need to be at least 10-2, and depending on the year, maybe 9-3 gets you there. And depending on how things sort themselves out for Oklahoma, maybe they can get there sooner than later.

“But I think there’s going to be a little bit of growing pains as they transition into the league, and as a result, I’m going to put that number a little lower than I probably would if they were to remain in the Big 12. Because I think in the Big 12, they have a much better chance of having easier access to the playoff, and I just don’t know if it’s going to happen on an annual basis in the SEC the way it happened on an annual basis throughout their run of the last 25 years of dominance in the Big 12. So, I put it at 10 percent for Brent Venables and Oklahoma.”

A former 13-year Oklahoma assistant coach who won a national championship with the Sooners and two more with Clemson during his 10-year stint as defensive coordinator, Venables was named OU’s 23rd head football coach Dec. 5, 2021.

The 52-year-old served as co-defensive coordinator and linebackers coach at Oklahoma from 1999-2003 and as associate head coach, defensive coordinator and linebackers coach from 2004-11 under former head coach Bob Stoops. Venables has coached in eight national championship games between his time at OU and Clemson, winning titles with the Sooners in 2000 and Tigers in 2016 and 2018.

McElroy also discussed the percent chance that other year-three coaches can win a national title at their current school, including coaches such as former Clemson assistant Billy Napier at Florida (2 percent according to McElroy) and Mario Cristobal at Miami (25 percent according to McElroy).

You can check out McElroy’s commentary below:

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