CLEMSON — When it comes to big games, it does not get any bigger than Saturday’s ACC opener between No. 21 Clemson and NC State.
“This is a big game for both teams, as we get into conference play,” Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney said. “That is really what it is all about at this point. It’s about the conference. We got eight straight conference games coming up.
“So, every week is a huge opportunity, starting with this one.”
NC State at No. 21 Clemson
Kickoff: Saturday, noon
Location: Memorial Stadium, Clemson
TV: ABC
Spread: Clemson -19
Over/Under: 44.5
Series: Clemson leads series 60-30-1
WHAT’S AT STAKE?
It’s the ACC opener for both teams. The win will not only get off to a good start in conference play, but they will also own the tiebreaker in the head-to-head department in case they are in a tie at the end of the season. In its previous 71 seasons of ACC membership, Clemson has posted a 44-26-1 record in conference openers. The Tigers have won eight of its last nine ACC openers. Clemson’s eight-year winning streak in conference openers from 2015-’22 was Clemson’s longest such streak in school history. Head coach Dabo Swinney is 10-5 in ACC openers at Clemson, with four of the five losses coming on the road.
KEY MATCHUP
How will freshman quarterback C.J. Bailey handle his first start on the road against a Clemson defense that is known for feasting on freshman quarterbacks in the past at Death Valley? Bailey came in for starter Grayson McCall late in the second quarter against La. Tech after McCall suffered a shoulder and Achillies injury. The true freshman performed well in relief, completing 13 of 20 passes for 156 yards. He also ran for 27 yards on four carries and scored a touchdown. He did throw an interception, however. The key in this game is whether or not the Clemson defense can create havoc for the freshman and shake his confidence. Look for defensive coordinator Wes Goodwin to bring some sort of blitzes throughout the game.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Last year, Clemson running back Phil Mafah ran for 84 yards on 16 carries and scored two touchdowns, with most of those yards coming in the second half, as the Tigers tried to rally in Raleigh. Look for Clemson to continue handing the football to Mafah in this game. If the Tigers can establish Mafah and the running game, it will open up things downfield as the ‘Pack will have to come out of its 3-3-5 shell and start committing to stop the running game. Unlike recent years, Clemson has the playmakers to make things happen over the top if the Wolfpack sellout to stop the run.
NC State wide receiver Kevin Concepcion is one the top playmakers in the ACC. Last year, they needed just two plays from the dynamic receiver to take the Tigers down. He had a 54-yard reverse to set up the game’s first touchdown and then he caught a simple slant pass and turned it into a 72-yard touchdown reception, which turned out to be the game-winning touchdown. This year, Concepcion has 22 receptions for 199 yards and three touchdowns through three games. How will the Tigers defend him? Will they leave him alone in one-on-one situations and trust their defensive backs or will they double him and try to limit his production? It should be fun to see how this matchup goes.
THIS AND THAT
Clemson has won nine straight games against NC State at Memorial Stadium. Dating to a 26-20 victory in 2004. In the Tigers’ nine straight victories at Death Valley, their average margin victory over the Wolfpack is 15.2 points.
FINAL ANALYSIS
Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik struggled in this game last season. He completed 33 of 50 passes for 263 yards and two interceptions. At times he was indecisive on whether to run or throw the ball and as result the offense struggled. Against App State, back on Sept. 7, he completed 24 of 26 passes for 378 yards and five touchdowns. He also ran for two scores. Can he perform at a high level for a second straight week? This game will be a good test to see how far Klubnik has grown in his progression as a college quarterback and will likely decide the outcome of the game.
PREDICTION
Clemson 34, NC State 13