Will’s ACC Championship Game: Preview and Prediction

CHARLOTTE — Eighteen tackles.

That is how many tackles South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers broke last weekend in the Gamecocks’ win over Clemson.

The Tigers have had their issues tackling running quarterbacks this season. They gave up 87 yards to Stanford quarterback Ashton Daniels. The Citadel quarterback Johnathan Bennett ran for 54 yards, while Sellers ran for 166 yards and scored 2 TDs for the Gamecocks.

What does it mean for Saturday against SMU in the ACC Championship Game? It means the Tigers have to stop another running quarterback in Kevin Jennings, who has 344 yards and 4 TDs on the ground.

“Hopefully Peter Woods can hold on to him,” Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney said. “We were all over (Sellers), we just got to tackle. We have to tackle (Jennings). We just need our guy to be better than their guy.”

Sellers was definitely better than anyone Clemson threw at him last week. Sellers averaged 10.4 yards per carry and was throwing it seemed every Clemson defender off of him.

“There are things we can do, but sometimes a guy just wins a matchup,” Swinney said. “So, there are always things you try to do, but number one, we have to tackle. We have to tackle the guy.”

No. 17 Clemson (9-3, 7-1 ACC) vs. No. 8 SMU (11-1, 8-0 ACC)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8 p.m.

Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.

TV: ABC

Spread: SMU -2 points

Over/Under: 55.5 points

Series: First meeting

WHAT’S AT STAKE?

Chicken or Pop Tarts. If Clemson wins, it will earn an automatic berth to the College Football Playoff and could earn a bye to the quarterfinals and play in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. If they lose, the Tigers will fall likely to the Holiday Bowl in San Diego. Should SMU win, it will earn the CFP’s No. 3 seed and will play in the Chick-fil-A Bowl in Atlanta. A loss, and the Mustangs could fall out of the top 11 and will have to settle for a trip to Orlando and settle for the Pop Tart Bowl.

KEY MATCHUP

SMU running back Brashard Smith (5-10, 196) is bigger than Louisville’s Isaac Brown and Pitt’s Desmond Reid, but unfortunately for Clemson he is just as explosive. Smith ranks third in the ACC with 1,157 yards, 14 TDs and averages 6.0 yards per carry. He also has 29 catches out of the backfield for 269 yards and three more scores. Since Brown ran for 151 yards and two scores on the Tigers in Louisville’s win, the Tigers did better at limiting Pitt’s Reid and South Carolina’s Rocket Sanders. Reid ran for just 68 yards, though he did catch 10 passes for 108 yards, but he did not score a touchdown. Sanders was limited to 60 rushing yards and averaged just 3.3 yards per carry. He caught four passes for 48 yards and like Reid did not score a TD. The Clemson defense will have to play its best game of the season to slow down Smith, whose longest run this season is 71 yards.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik had a very good game against the Gamecocks last week. He totaled 342 yards and ran for 2 TDs, and he did it against one of the best defenses in the country. Unfortunately for the Tigers, he made one mistake which cost the Tigers the game. Klubnik was noticeably upset following the game and felt as if he let his teammates down by throwing the last second interception. How he moves on from his mistake against the Gamecocks will determine the Tigers’ chances. Klubnik has had a great season to this point with 3,478 total yards and 36 total touchdowns. Let’s not forget, he was the MVP of this game two years ago. And after being snubbed from the All-ACC team, he should be motivated.

SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings did not become the full-time starter until after the Mustangs’ loss to BYU on Sept. 6. Since then, he has led SMU to a 9-0 record and a No. 8 ranking in the latest CFP rankings. He has not been perfect (seven interceptions), but he has been good, very good at times. He has completed 66.7 percent of passes for 2,746 yards and 19 TDs. He also rushed for another 344 yards and 4 TDs.

THIS AND THAT

Saturday will be the Tigers’ 10th trip to the ACC Championship Game, all under Swinney. They are 8-1 all-time in the championship game and 7-0 at Bank of America Stadium. The Tigers have won eight straight in the ACC Championship Game and are going for their already record 22nd all-time ACC Championship. It would also be there 28 conference championship overall.

FINAL ANALYSIS

Clemson again controls its own destiny when it comes to making the CFP. However, like the last two times they controlled their own fate, they will lose it. SMU is the better team. The Mustangs are better in the trenches, they are better at running the ball and stopping the run. They put pressure on the quarterback, and they protect their quarterback. Clemson’s only hope is to force multiple turnovers and take advantage of them like they did North Carolina in this very same game two years ago. The Mustangs have turned the ball over 19 times this year and Clemson leads the ACC and is ranked fifth nationally in turnover margin (+14). I picked Clemson to play SMU in the championship game at ACC Media Days back in July. However, I picked Clemson to win the game, and today I am going back on my pick.

PREDICTION

SMU 34, Clemson 24