CBS Sports draft analyst Ryan Wilson developed a projection model to evaluate rookie quarterbacks, tracking data from 2015-2025 to predict early career success.

The model weighs various college variables to project rookie efficiency. For the most recent draft class, the model analyzed the best- and worst-case outcomes this season for some rookie QBs — including Clemson’s Cade Klubnik.

Klubnik was drafted by the New York Jets in the fourth round of the 2026 NFL Draft with the 110th overall pick, joining a Jets QB room that also includes Geno Smith, Brady Cook and Bailey Zappe.

Smith, a 14-year veteran, has been named the starter by Jets head coach Aaron Glenn. But Klubnik is competing to back up Smith this season.

Wilson asked the question, can the Jets build enough around Klubnik?

“The Jets didn’t draft Klubnik expecting him to save the franchise in 2026 — you don’t do that with fourth-round picks. The expectation is development. Still, we’re assuming here that he eventually finds his way onto the field next season. And if he does, the biggest question won’t be out-of-structure playmaking ability or athleticism. It’ll be whether the concerns raised by his college tape were developmental issues … or indicators of larger limitations,” Wilson wrote.

“The Jets attempted to improve the offense around him by selecting Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper Jr. in Round 1. New offensive coordinator Frank Reich’s influence will also be critical. At his best, Reich creates quarterback-friendly systems built around timing, play-action and layered reads.”

Here’s the projected range of outcomes for Klubnik’s rookie season, according to Wilson’s model:

“The simulation reinforces what the model has been saying all along,” Wilson wrote. “The Jets improved the supporting cast. Reich provides a quarterback-friendly offensive structure. But the projections repeatedly arrive at the same conclusion: The questions raised by Klubnik’s collegiate profile don’t disappear simply because the environment improves. More than any quarterback we’re talking about here, his projection depends on proving the model wrong.”

Klubnik was considered a potential first-round pick during his career at Clemson, especially in the offseason prior to his senior season last year, following a junior season during which he passed for 3,639 yards, 36 touchdowns and only six interceptions while leading the Tigers to an ACC title and appearance in the College Football Playoff.

Unfortunately, Klubnik’s senior season in 2025 did not go as planned. The Tigers as a team had a highly disappointing 7-6 season, and Klubnik himself saw his numbers fall off compared to his stellar 2024 campaign, as he threw for 2,943 yards, 16 touchdowns and six picks.

Though his senior season did not go as he had hoped, Klubnik, a two-time ACC Championship Game MVP, exited Clemson as the school-record-holder in pass completions (916) and pass attempts (1,432), third in passing yards (10,123), fourth in passing touchdowns (73), total touchdown responsibility (90) and total offense (11,001). He also joined Rodney Williams (44), Tajh Boyd (40), Nealon Greene (40) and Charlie Whitehurst (40) as the fifth quarterback in Clemson history to start at least 40 career games at quarterback. Klubnik posted a 26-14 record as a starter, concluding his career fifth in wins by a starting quarterback in school history.

Among those who have shared their opinions on Klubnik since the Jets drafted him is longtime sports personality Skip Bayless, who sees potential and upside in Klubnik, comparing him to Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix.

“I see a little Bo Nix in him,” Bayless said recently. “They’re cut from the same cloth to me. Just a little bit. … They’re both 6-2. Bo’s a little stouter, a little thicker maybe, because he’s 217 to Cade’s 207, so it’s 10 pounds of thickness, maybe maturity. But listen, Cade Klubnik throws it pretty well. I would say his arm is above average. I’m not going to say it’s Justin Herbert, but it always looked pretty good to me. When he escaped when he was healthy going back two and three years ago, I would say, ‘OK, I see that.’”