Former Clemson stars Trevor Lawrence and Deshaun Watson are far apart in this national outlet’s NFL quarterback rankings.

In the 2026 NFL Quarterback Tiers compiled by Mike Sando for The Athletic, a panel of 50 NFL coaches and executives (21 execs, 29 coaches) placed 35 quarterbacks into distinct tiers.

“Each voter placed 35 veteran quarterbacks into five tiers, from best (Tier 1) to worst (Tier 5). Quarterbacks were then ranked by average vote and placed into tiers,” Sando explained.

Lawrence is now ranked No. 16 overall. The Jacksonville Jaguars franchise QB moved up from Tier 3 in 2025 (No. 18 ranking then) to Tier 2 in 2026.

Meanwhile, Watson, who did not play in 2025 due to injury, is now ranked No. 31 overall. The Cleveland Browns signal-caller moved from Tier 3 in 2024 (No. 18 ranking then) down to Tier 4 in 2026.

A QB in Tier 2 like Lawrence is described as being one that “carries his team sometimes; handles pure-passing situations in doses; or has other dimensions that elevate him above Tier 3; has a hole or two in his game.”

After years of battling injuries, enduring coaching changes and facing “generational” prospect expectations, Lawrence enjoyed a breakout year in 2025, his fifth season with the Jaguars and first under Jags head coach Liam Coen.

From The Athletic on Lawrence:

Lawrence climbed back into Tier 2 after two years in the third tier, making him the highest-rated quarterback in the AFC South. Current GMs and offensive coaches were higher on him than the other voters.

“Man, if there’s anybody that’s between a 2 and a 3, I would say him right now,” a former head coach said. “If he does it again this year, I could see putting him as a standing 2.”

Will that be good enough for second-year coach Liam Coen?

“Trevor took a huge jump last year,” an exec said. “I’d say he was a 2 going to a 1 at the end of the year. You saw some things that you kind of thought you saw in the draft.”

Voters thought Lawrence appeared much more confident last season.

“Liam is a fiery guy, and it allows that to come out of Trevor, who has never been that,” an offensive coach said. “Doug Pederson was a different style guy, so you were not going to get that out of Trevor.”

It’s not the first time Lawrence has flashed promise.

“He is going to flash for windows where you go, ‘Oh, I think he is becoming the guy,’ but you are not in Year 2 anymore,” an offensive coordinator said. “This is just kind of who you are — streaky, up and down.

“If everyone around him does their job at a high level, he has a chance, but he is never going to be able to carry anything for extended periods of time.”

Last season, the former No. 1 overall draft pick was named an MVP finalist, as well as a finalist for Comeback Player of the Year. Though Lawrence didn’t win either award, it doesn’t take away from the stellar season he had while leading the Jaguars (13-4 regular season) to their first AFC South title since 2022 and first playoff berth since the same year.

Lawrence finished last season having completed 60.9 percent of his passes for 4,007 yards and a career-high 29 touchdown passes with 12 interceptions. He also recorded career highs in carries (82), rushing yards (359) and rushing touchdowns (nine) while accounting for a career-high 38 total touchdowns – the third-best mark in the NFL behind only Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (46) and Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (39).

Lawrence heads into the 2026 season having completed 62.8 percent of his passes for 17,822 yards and 98 touchdowns with 58 interceptions, to go with 1,442 rushing yards and 23 more scores on the ground, over his NFL career from 2021-25. The 2022 Pro Bowler has surpassed 4,000 passing yards three times in the last four seasons.

As for the Tier 4 where Watson is, it’s described as being an “unproven player; not enough information to classify” or a “veteran who ideally would not be a full-season starter.”

Watson is entering the final year of his deal in 2026 and is competing with second-year pro Shedeur Sanders for Cleveland’s starting job. In March 2022, Watson signed a fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million contract with the Browns after being traded from the Houston Texans, who gave away a bunch of draft picks (including three first-round picks) in the deal.

Watson has not played in an NFL game since he suffered a season-ending Achilles tendon tear during Cleveland’s Week 7 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals on Oct. 20, 2024. Less than three months after his initial tear, Watson tore his Achilles for the second time and underwent a second surgery in January 2025 to repair it, forcing him to miss the entire 2025 season. He also underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in November 2023.

Facing that adversity in recent seasons, both on and off the field, Watson played in just six games in his first season with Cleveland in 2022 after having to serve a suspension and then was limited to just six games in 2023, seven in 2024 and zero in 2025 due to the season-ending injuries.

From The Athletic on Watson:

Watson is one of 60 quarterbacks to start at least 10 games since the Browns acquired him in 2022. He ranks 59th among them in EPA per pass play (Zach Wilson is 60th).

“You’re not projecting he is going to go the whole season and be a guy at this point, are you?” a GM asked.

Most assume Watson and Shedeur Sanders will both start at various points.

“(New coach Todd) Monken’s offense is a little more look over here, read the whole field, as opposed to reading the coverages,” a coach said. “That is better for Deshaun, and for Shedeur.”

Watson has started only 19 games for Cleveland since being acquired from Houston. He was suspended 11 games in 2022 for violating the personal conduct policy, had shoulder surgery in 2023, then suffered a torn Achilles tendon in 2024 and re-tore it during rehab. He turns 31 in September and should be entering his prime as a quarterback.

“I don’t think he can come back,” an offensive coach said. “You do not all of a sudden get drive and desire and processing skills. He showed he had none of that with what he put on film. He’s a 5 at this point.”

Only one other voter placed Watson in Tier 5. One holdout, a head coach, put Watson in Tier 2, betting on Monken’s ability to bring out the best in what’s left of him.

“I don’t even know what to do with him,” a former GM said. “It’s been so long. It’s almost like a no-grade with him. He could be anything from a 3 to a 5.”

In the limited action over his time in Cleveland thus far, Watson has completed 61.2 percent of his passes for 3,365 yards and 19 touchdowns with 12 interceptions.

A three-time Pro Bowler during his time with the Texans, Watson has a 66.2 completion percentage for his career with 17,904 passing yards and 123 passing touchdowns with 48 interceptions in 73 career games with the Texans and Browns since being selected by Houston in the first round (12th overall) of the 2017 NFL Draft.