ESPN Analyst Gives Preview, Prediction for Clemson-Miami

On his Always College Football show, ESPN analyst Greg McElroy gave an in-depth preview of some of Week 5’s biggest games – including Saturday’s showdown between Clemson and No. 4 Miami.

McElroy broke down the matchup at Clemson’s Memorial Stadium, which is set to kick off at 7:30 p.m. on ABC, with the Hurricanes currently a 16.5-point favorite.

Both teams enter the contest 2-0 in ACC play. Miami is undefeated at 4-0 overall while Clemson comes in with a 3-1 overall record.

“Miami and Clemson, they’re the only two teams in the ACC with two ACC wins,” McElroy said. “And here they are, meeting Saturday night in Death Valley. And that would have sounded real normal for most of the last 15 years. What would not have been normal is Clemson being a 17-point underdog at home. Now, the Tigers opened the season with a 51-10 loss at LSU, and they’ve won three straight since. They’ve kind of been maybe grinding a little more than they’ve been gliding. …

“This is the game that decides where the ACC race is, relative to Miami’s dominance and who else is in the mix.”

McElroy weighed in on the two quarterbacks – Miami’s Darian Mensah and Clemson’s Tait Reynolds.

On Clemson’s end, the true freshman Reynolds will be making his third career start after helping lead a second-half rally in his first career start vs. North Carolina on Sept. 19 and then winning his first career road start last Friday night at Cal.

“Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney said his quarterback maybe had some early-game jitters at Cal, and should not have fumbled on an RPO outside the pocket, but he did settle down,” McElroy said. “Well, Saturday night, he’s at home, and he’s going to have to settle down faster. Because this group he’s playing against is the real deal.”

McElroy also went through what he sees as the strength and weakness of each team on both sides of the ball, as well as what the biggest mismatch is.

“The Clemson defense, their strength – they’re not giving up big plays on the ground,” McElroy said. “No runs of 20-plus yards allowed all year. The weakness is the run in between, because they’re still giving up 4.5 yards a carry allowed – that’s in the 100s [nationally], so they’ve got to be better stopping the run.

“So Clemson’s offense is the run game is starting to become a strength, and it’s really waking up at the right time. They ran for 255 yards at Cal. But the weakness right now is points. They’re just not scoring a ton of points. Just 21 points a game, only two touchdown passes all season.”

“The biggest mismatch right now – probably Miami’s rushing attack against Clemson’s rushing defense,” McElroy added. “It might not give up the home run, but it’s been a little bit too consistent with how teams have been able to run the ball against them.”

McElroy concluded by giving his prediction for the game – he’s picking Miami to beat Clemson, 34-13.

His prediction came with a bit of a caveat, however, as McElroy says the Tigers can “absolutely win the game” if the Hurricanes hurt themselves with mistakes.

But McElroy isn’t counting on that to happen.

“So the verdict on this one is Miami is going to win the game 34-13,” McElroy said. “Cristobal’s teams are 78-19 when they outrun the other team. This matchup is built for Miami to do exactly that. Now, Death Valley at night, it’s going to be loud. And Clemson, they’re going to make some plays. Maybe it’ll happen on special teams again. But I do think Miami has a chance to control both lines of scrimmage, and their quarterback just flat-out doesn’t miss.

“So, Clemson’s going to need Miami to make some mistakes. If Miami makes some mistakes, then Clemson can absolutely win the game. But I’m not envisioning that so far with how efficiently they’ve played offensively all throughout the season.”

McElroy laid out his five biggest questions entering the game: 1) Can Clemson running back Gideon Davidson find any room to run? 2) Can Mensah beat the blitz? 3) Can Miami pound the middle of Clemson’s defense? 4) Can the freshman Reynolds survive Miami’s defense at night? 5) Can Miami wide receiver Malachi Toney turn the short throws into long ones?

You can hear McElroy’s full preview of the matchup beginning at the 43:54 mark of the following video: