CLEMSON — With news on Monday that the College Football Playoff has officially expanded to 24 teams, the ACC, along with every FBS conference, announced this year will be the last time it will host a conference championship game.
No team has played in the ACC Championship Game more than Clemson, who has qualified for the title-game 10 times in the 21-year history of the game. The Tigers are 9-1 in those 10 Championship Games.
Can the Tigers get back there one more time?
It is going to be hard, but yes there is a path for Clemson to make it to the ACC Championship Game on Dec. 5 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.
ACC STANDINGS
As of right now, only six teams are in the mix for the ACC Championship Game, which includes Clemson.
Here are the six ACC teams with an opportunity to go to the title game:
Team ACC Record, Overall Record
- Miami 6-0, 8-1
- Wake Forest 5-1, 8-1
- Louisville 5-2, 6-3
- SMU 5-2, 7-2
- Duke 4-2, 7-2
- Clemson 4-2, 6-3
Note: Clemson is the only team in the current six-team race that plays just 8 conference games.
WIN OUT
The first thing Clemson must do is win its remaining three games, and yes, that means beating South Carolina, too. I will explain later why beating the Gamecocks is important to the Tigers’ chances of getting to the ACC Championship Game.
Clemson’s remaining schedule:
vs. Georgia Tech (Nov. 14); at Duke (Nov. 20); vs. No. 21 South Carolina (Nov. 28)
NEED WAKE TO LOSE
Wake Forest, like Miami, controls its own destiny.
Wake Forest’s remaining schedule:
at SMU (Nov. 14); at Georgia Tech (Nov. 21); vs. Duke (Nov. 28)
If the Demon Deacons win out, then they and the Hurricanes will likely play in the ACC Championship Game.
Clemson will like to see Wake Forest lose twice, but that is not as likely. Though it is possible. If they lose two more times, then the Demon Deacons finish 6-3 in the ACC and the Tigers, who would be 6-2.
If Wake loses just one, then tiebreakers come into play, as both teams will have two losses, even though Wake would have won more conference win than Clemson.
NEED CARDINALS TO LOSE ONE
Clemson needs Louisville to lose just one game, but it will be hard for the Cardinals to lose any of their two remaining ACC games.
Louisville’s remaining schedule:
at UNC (Nov.14); vs. Pitt (Nov. 21); at Kentucky (Nov. 28)
Clemson needs either UNC or Pitt to come up with an upset to knock Louisville out of the race. If the Cardinals win both and finish 7-2 in the ACC, the Tigers might need a little help from Kentucky in the regular season finale.
NEED SMU TO BEAT WAKE
Saturday’s game between SMU and Wake is huge to Clemson’s chances at making it to the ACC Championship Game.
SMU’s remaining schedule:
vs. Wake (Nov. 14); at Notre Dame (Nov. 21); at Stanford (Nov. 28)
If SMU beats Wake, it likely will finish 7-2 in ACC play. I cannot see the Mustangs going to Stanford on the last week of the season and losing to Stanford. If that is the case, then Tigers perhaps need Notre Dame to take down SMU on Nov. 21 in non-conference action.
BEAT DUKE, DUKE BEAT WAKE
Clemson plays Duke on Nov. 20, where the Tigers will need to beat the Blue Devils—assuming Clemson beats Georgia Tech this Saturday—to have any chance of making the ACC Championship Game.
If the Tigers can go to Durham and get the win there, then they’ll need the Blue Devils to beat Wake Forest in the season finale the following week for good measure.
If that happens, and Wake losses to SMU and Louisville drops a game to either UNC, Pitt, or Stanford were to upset SMU in the final week, then Clemson will go to the ACC Championship Game because everyone will have three losses to the Tigers’ two.
CLEMSON TIES WITH ONE OR TWO TEAMS
What is the situation if Clemson ties a team or multiple teams with two losses?
Under the ACC’s new tiebreakers rules, which were passed in July, teams with the same amount of losses will be grouped together. A team who plays one more conference game than another will not have an advantage over teams that played one less game.
So, if Clemson goes 6-2 and ends and someone else, such as SMU or Wake goes 7-2, the Tigers will not be punished because it played one less conference game, so conference win percentage will not matter.
With that said, head-to-head will go into play first and if ties cannot be broken at that point, then common opponent formulas will go into play.
If that happens, and Clemson is tied individually with Wake Forest, SMU or Louisville, then the Tigers will likely tie any of those teams in the common opponents’ formulas.
If all the tiebreaking scenarios above have been exhausted, then the ACC will go to SportSource Analytics’ Team Success Ranking, which evaluates a team’s overall body of work using both conference and non-conference games, as well as other metrics.
This is why a Clemson win over No. 21 South Carolina at the end of the season could possibly get the Tigers into the ACC Championship Game. It also can benefit Louisville, who plays No. 6 Kentucky and SMU, who plays No. 11 Notre Dame.
Clemson also had a non-conference game with No. 14 LSU, while Louisville had a non-conference matchup with No. 10 Ole Miss. They both lost those games, but teams are awarded in the metric for playing a tough out of conference opponents.