How We Got Here: 2016’s Most Important Games

Except for Army-Navy this weekend, another college football regular season has come to a close. This means we can now look back and examine how we arrived at this point.

One of the cool things about any sports season is how the meanings of certain events can change over time. Seeing more games gives us more context, which allows us to see things in an ever-evolving way. Results that seemed innocuous at the time can gain great importance once the full season has played out. Other ones lose value as weeks pass, while still others see their respective values increase.

Here is my list of the one game each week that had the most importance on the big picture developments in college football this season:

Week 1: Wisconsin 16, LSU 14. This was a quasi-road game for the Tigers at Lambeau Field, but they were still heavy favorites and hopeful playoff participants. A close loss put those chances in jeopardy right from the beginning, and it became the beginning of the end for both Les Miles and Brandon Harris. For the Badgers, an improbable run to the precipice of the College Football Playoff and the Big Ten West title was put into motion. Just Missed: Texas 50, Notre Dame 47 (OT); Clemson 19, Auburn 13; Houston 33, Oklahoma 23.

Week 2: Central Michigan 30, Oklahoma State 27. It became the most controversial ending of the season. The decision by the officials to ignore the rules and give the Chippewas an untimed down on a change of possession led to one of the greatest plays of the year—a hail mary that gave the Cowboys their first loss of 2016. Central Michigan finished the year 6-6, so the win was big for them, but consider the ramifications if the Cowboys had won. They would have been a one-loss team with a chance to win the Big 12 heading into Bedlam, so we would have been having an entirely different playoff discussion on the final week of the season. Just Missed: Tennessee 45, Virginia Tech 24.

Week 3: Ohio State 45, Oklahoma 24. An emphatic road win in Norman cemented the Buckeyes’ status near the top of the rankings early in the year. That win would continue to be one of the best two or three for Ohio State, which may have needed that kind of out-of-conference road victory to make the playoff field without a division title. The Sooners fell to 1-2 and were seen as disappointments with only a quarter of the season played. That perception took a while to reverse, making a nine-game winning streak to close the season inadequate to earn them a bid. Just Missed: Louisville 63, Florida State 20; Alabama 48, Ole Miss 43; Stanford 27, USC 10; Cal 50, Texas 43; Michigan State 36, Notre Dame 28.

Week 4: Auburn 18, LSU 13. This game was Les Miles’ last stand. With a second loss in four weeks, the ride was over for him in Baton Rouge—and only by a few inches, as a last-second pass took a receiver in the end zone just out of bounds. Miles’ ouster ushered in the Ed Orgeron era, which continues to this day after he was hired as the permanent head coach two days after Thanksgiving. For Gus Malzahn, the win may have helped save his job, as a 1-3 start with all those games coming at home might have sunk the ship. Instead, the Tigers rebounded with a 6-2 finish to get Malzahn off of the hot seat for now. Just Missed: Washington 35, Arizona 28 (OT); Tennessee 38, Florida 28; Baylor 35, Oklahoma State 24.

Week 5: Clemson 36, Louisville 34. The night clash of ACC Atlantic titans (and Heisman Trophy finalists) was at least the second or third best game of the year, if not better. Both teams made plays throughout, trading blows in front of a raucous crowd with clear stakes on the line. The win against the Cardinals is still seen as Clemson’s best of the year, while Louisville’s close loss was actually treated like a victory by some who wished to see such an explosive offense included in the playoff field. Those dreams survived for several weeks before Louisville’s implosion. Just Missed: Washington 44, Stanford 6; Michigan 14, Wisconsin 7; North Carolina 37, Florida State 35.

Week 6: Navy 46, Houston 40. After a 5-0 start got people talking about the Cougars crashing the playoff party, the Midshipmen bombarded Houston with a punishing ground assault. The maturity of Tom Herman’s program was tested, and it failed the test and became no more than an afterthought in the national conversation. This also became a precursor of things to come for Navy, as the team from Annapolis became the unlikely champion of the AAC West. Just Missed: USC 21, Colorado 17; Texas A&M 45, Tennessee 38 (2OT); Oklahoma 45, Texas 40.

Week 7: Ohio State 30, Wisconsin 23 (OT). If the Badgers would have pulled this one out at home, they could have been playing against Penn State for a playoff berth in the Big Ten title game. Instead, this became yet another feather in Ohio State’s cap on the road to Glendale. The Buckeyes trailed for basically the entire game and had to come back just to force overtime. Wisconsin would continue to play at a high level, but its body of work could have used this victory big time. Just Missed: Clemson 24, NC State 17 (OT); Alabama 49, Tennessee 10; Syracuse 31, Virginia Tech 17.

Week 8: Penn State 24, Ohio State 21. The Nittany Lions’ blocked field goal return for a touchdown should get serious consideration for play of the year, although the bottom line wasn’t really affected by it. Still, James Franklin doesn’t win a Big Ten crown if not for that play. Ohio State wins its division (and probably the league) if that kick gets past the line of scrimmage, and we’re not debating how important conference championships are to the committee for two or three straight weeks. Just Missed: Alabama 33, Texas A&M 14; SMU 38, Houston 16.

Week 9: Washington 31, Utah 24. The Huskies were unbeaten, but they were also largely untested. A road game against the Utes became a proving ground for Chris Petersen’s team. Washington ultimately prevailed on a punt return for a touchdown late in the contest. The victory gave the Huskies perhaps their most impressive win of the regular season, replacing the romp over Stanford that lost a bit of its shine over time. Just Missed: Clemson 37, Florida State 34; Louisville 32, Virginia 25; Wisconsin 23, Nebraska 17; Oklahoma State 37, West Virginia 20; Wyoming 30, Boise State 28; Texas 35, Baylor 34.

Week 10: Mississippi State 35, Texas A&M 28. When the CFP committee released its first set of rankings at the outset of November, the most curious inclusion in the playoff field was Texas A&M in the fourth slot. That skepticism looked completely justified after the Aggies lost to a Bulldog team that was 3-5 going into the matchup. Mississippi State never trailed in the game and led by two scores at the half. The loss also began the traditional November meltdown for Kevin Sumlin’s program, an annoying trend that has him back on the hot seat heading into 2017. Just Missed: Alabama 10, LSU 0; Ohio State 62, Nebraska 3; Penn State 41, Iowa 14; Arkansas 31, Florida 10.

Week 11: Iowa 14, Michigan 13. Honestly, this award could have gone to Pittsburgh-Clemson or USC-Washington. It was, by far, the wackiest week of the season. Teams ranked 2, 3, 4, 8, 9, 14, and 17 all fell to unranked opponents. Three of those squads lost at home. The reason the Michigan-Iowa game earns the crown on this list is that the Wolverines are the only one of those top three teams that eventually missed the playoff. This was also the game in which Michigan quarterback Wilton Speight suffered a collarbone injury that put his status for the rest of the season in doubt. Just Missed: Pittsburgh 43, Clemson 42; USC 26, Washington 13; Georgia 13, Auburn 7; LSU 38, Arkansas 10; Georgia Tech 30, Virginia Tech 20.

Week 12: Houston 36, Louisville 10. The Cardinals felt snubbed by the CFP committee, and they let the world know it in interviews and on Twitter for two straight days. Then, they took the field against the Cougars and proved they didn’t belong after all. It was the worst-case scenario for Louisville, as Heisman frontrunner Lamar Jackson let the field back into the race with a clunker. The Thursday night beatdown also catapulted Tom Herman back to the forefront of every Power 5 athletic director’s list of potential coaches. Just Missed: Oklahoma 56, West Virginia 28; Colorado 38, Washington State 24; Oregon 30, Utah 28; Ohio State 17, Michigan State 16; Florida 16, LSU 10.

Week 13: Ohio State 30, Michigan 27 (2OT). This matchup will ultimately be remembered as slightly better than Clemson-Louisville when we consider the best games of 2016. The Buckeyes survived at home in double overtime after a controversial fourth-down conversion that had Jim Harbaugh steaming in his postgame presser. If the Wolverines had prevailed, the storyline would have been neat and tidy, since a one-loss team could still win the Big Ten. Instead, the Buckeyes’ victory sent the Wolverines into two-loss territory and pitted a pair of two-loss teams (Penn State and Wisconsin) against each other in the conference championship. It also left one-loss Ohio State—the team with the best body of work in the league—idle during championship week. That storyline guided the conversation concerning the committee’s intentions for the next week and will probably continue to do so next season, as well. Just Missed: Colorado 27, Utah 22; Washington 45, Washington State 17; LSU 54, Texas A&M 39; Kentucky 41, Louisville 38; Memphis 48, Houston 44; Alabama 30, Auburn 12.

Week 14: Washington 41, Colorado 10. There really weren’t any seismic shifts that took place during conference championship week. Instead, it was more about solidifying the playoff field and affirming favorites. This matchup swung heavily in the Huskies’ favor early at home, as the Buffaloes were uncharacteristically sloppy with the ball and had to deal with a quarterback injury. Washington owned the game on the ground and won a ticket to the College Football Playoff in decisive fashion. Just Missed: Clemson 42, Virginia Tech 35; Penn State 38, Wisconsin 31; Oklahoma 38, Oklahoma State 20; Western Michigan 29, Ohio 23; Temple 34, Navy 10.