Not since the 2022 season has Clemson found itself in the conversation to make the College Football Playoff.
While the Tigers failed to make the field that year, they did find themselves in position to make it in, only to suffer a home loss to South Carolina in the regular season finale that sealed their fate.
The Tigers, ranked No. 10 in the latest AP poll, have not made it to the CFP since 2020, the last of six straight appearances from 2015-’20.
Five games into this season, Clemson appears to have multiple paths to the new 12-team playoff. With the five highest-ranked conference champions receiving an automatic bid, the clearest path is to win the ACC outright.
While the Tigers do have a loss to No. 5 Georgia, they are the only team off to a 3-0 start in ACC play. Miami, Virginia and SMU are all 2-0, with Pitt currently sitting at 1-0. In an interesting turn of events, Clemson, Miami and SMU do not face one another at any point in the regular season, meaning it is possible, although not likely, that all three could finish ACC play unbeaten.
The Tigers, Hurricanes and the Mustangs look to be the favorites to make it to Charlotte.
Remaining Opponents
Clemson (4-1, 3-0 ACC): at Wake Forest, vs. Virginia, vs. Louisville, at Virginia Tech, at Pitt, vs. Citadel, vs. South Carolina
The Tigers have a fairly manageable slate the rest of the way, but those two road games in November should not be overlooked. Blacksburg is not an easy place to play, especially if Virginia Tech is playing well, while Pitt looks like it could be dangerous team as well on the road.
Miami (6-0, 2-0 ACC): at Louisville, vs. Florida State, vs. Duke, at Georgia Tech, vs. Wake Forest, at Syracuse
The Hurricanes could easily have two conference losses already. Controversial calls saved them against Virginia Tech and Cal in the past two weeks. However, like Clemson, Miami has a very manageable slate the rest of the way. The Florida State game is a rivalry matchup, but the Seminoles are 1-5 and playing for nothing but pride. Road games at Louisville, Georgia Tech and Syracuse will be possible landmines.
SMU (5-1, 2-0 ACC): at Stanford, at Duke, vs. Pitt, vs. Boston College, at Virginia, vs. Cal
The Mustangs have the easiest path remaining, or so it appears. The toughest remaining matchups will all be at home. Of those teams, Pitt could be the one with the best shot to spoil SMU’s hopes.
Clemson as an at-large team
With the new 12-team format, there is also the possibility of Clemson getting in at 11-2. Should the Tigers win out but lose in the ACC Championship Game, the Tigers could be in position to earn an at-large spot.
How?
That us where the rankings come into play. When the first CFP Ranking is released on Nov. 5 the Tigers have an opportunity to be a top 10 or even a top 5 team.
Clemson is already a top 10 team and could work its way into the top five should it keep winning. A loss in the ACC Championship will likely not knock them out of the top 10, which should secure an at-large bid to the CFP.
If Clemson should got 11-1 and not play in the ACC Championship, which could happen, the Tigers likely still make the playoffs if it ends the regular season ranked inside the CFP’s top 10.
Could the Tigers make the playoff with a 10-3 record, which includes a loss in the ACC Championship Game? The chances would be slim in this scenario, but stranger things have happened.
Who is in contention with the Tigers?
Here is a look at what is left for some of the teams the Tigers could be competing against for an at-large spot.
In the Big Ten, Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State are all unbeaten and ranked inside of the Top 5. Indiana is also undefeated but have yet to get any real respect from the pollsters as the Hoosiers are ranked No. 18.
Unlike the ACC, the Big 10 standings will work themselves out, with most of the top teams facing off at some point. One of the marquee matchups this weekend will be the No. 2 Buckeyes hitting the road to take on the No. 3 Ducks.
Ohio State (5-0, 2-0): at Oregon, vs. Nebraska, at Penn State, vs. Purdue, vs. Northwestern (in Chicago), at Indiana, vs. Michigan
If the Buckeyes lose to Oregon, their game at Penn State in a few weeks could decide their fate in the Big Ten race, meaning their only path to the CFP would be as an at-large.
Oregon (5-0, 2-0 Big 10): vs. Ohio State, at Purdue, vs. Illinois, at Michigan, vs. Maryland, at Wisconsin, vs. Washington
If the Ducks get past Oregon, the only thing standing in their way to the Big Ten Championship is a game at Michigan in a few weeks.
Penn State (5-0, 2-0 Big 10): at Southern Cal, at Wisconsin, vs. Ohio State, vs. Washington, at Purdue, at Minnesota
The biggest hurdle for the Nittany Lions is their home game against he Buckeyes.
Indiana (6-0, 3-0 Big 10): vs. Nebraska, vs. Washington, at Michigan State, vs. Michigan, at Ohio State, vs. Purdue.
Time could be running out for Cinderella. The Hoosiers play at Michigan State before hosting the Wolverines and going to Ohio State. We will find out just how real this Indiana team is in the next few weeks.
SEC Bias
In the SEC, Texas A&M is 3-0 in league play, while Texas and LSU are both 1-0. Every other team already has at least one loss in SEC play, although Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia remain the hunt.
After Alabama’s loss to Vanderbilt, the Longhorns look to be in the driver’s seat and with an SEC schedule that sees them miss Alabama and Tennessee. However, there is still a lot of football to be played.
Remaining Opponents
Texas (5-0, 1-0 SEC): vs. Oklahoma (Dallas), vs. Georgia, at Vanderbilt, vs. Florida, at Arkansas, vs. Kentucky, at Texas A&M
Georgia and A&M seem to be the only obstacles in Texas’ way to the SEC title game.
Texas A&M (5-1, 3-0 SEC): at Mississippi State, vs. LSU, at South Carolina, vs. New Mexico, at Auburn, vs. Texas
The Aggies could spoil the party for someone else. LSU game will not be easy and at South Carolina could be a real challenge. Get past those two games and they could find themselves playing the Longhorns in back-to-back weeks.
LSU (4-1, 1-0): vs. Ole Miss, at Arkansas, at Texas A&M, vs. Alabama, at Florida, vs. Vanderbilt, vs. Oklahoma
Texas A&M and Alabama should be the real hurdles, but as Alabama and Kentucky discovered, Vandy is no pushover.
Alabama (4-1, 2-1 SEC): vs. South Carolina, at Tennessee, vs. Missouri, at LSU, vs. Mercer, at Oklahoma, vs. Auburn
Alabama is not out of the woods yet, especially with road trips to Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma still on the schedule.
Georgia (4-1, 2-1 SEC): vs. Mississippi State, at Texas, vs. Florida, at Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee, UMass, vs. Georgia Tech
Road trips to Texas and Ole Miss will not be easy for the Bulldogs, and do not count out Georgia Tech, either. Still a hard road for Georgia to make it back to the CFP.
Can Big 12 get an at-large bid?
In the Big 12, Iowa State and BYU are both off to 5-0 starts. The Cyclones have climbed to No. 11 in the AP Poll, while the Cougars are No. 14.
Remaining Opponents
Iowa State (5-0, 2-0 Big 12): at West Virginia, vs. UCF, vs. Texas Tech, at Kansas, vs. Cincinnati, at Utah, vs. Kansas State
The Cyclones date with Kansas State to close the regular season could decide their fate, as well as Kansas State’s.
BYU (5-0, 2-0 Big 12): vs. Arizona, vs. Oklahoma State, at UCF, at Utah, vs. Kansas, at Arizona State, vs. Houston
The only stumbling blocks for BYU is games at Utah and Arizona State.
Independents or Group of 5
Boise State is currently the highest ranked G5 team. The Broncos are currently No. 17.
Then there is Notre Dame, who would be eligible for an at-large bid. The Irish are currently 4-1 and No. 11 in the poll.
Boise State (4-1, 1-0): at Hawaii, at UNLV, San Diego State, Nevada, at San Jose, at Wyoming, Oregon State
The Broncos road trips to UNLV and Wyoming will likely decided their fate as the Group of 5 Champion in the CFP.
Notre Dame (4-1): vs. Stanford, at Georgia Tech, Navy, Florida State, Virginia, Army (Yankee Stadium), at Southern Cal
The Irish go to Georgia Tech and to USC, two more losses and they are done in the CFP race.
Current Top 12 (AP Poll)
- Texas
- Ohio State
- Oregon
- Penn State
- Georgia
- Miami
- Alabama
- Tennessee
- Ole Miss.
- Clemson
- Iowa State
- Boise State
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