Clemson was off over the weekend but that didn’t stop the AP voters from dropping the Tigers two spots down to No. 11 this week.
Despite the what could be perceived as outright disrespect, Dabo Swinney’s team still has multiple ways it could get back to the College Football Playoff, something Clemson has not achieved since the 2020 season.
Obviously, the most direct path would be to win the ACC Championship, as the five highest-ranked conference champions receive automatic bids. The four highest-ranked champions will receive first-round byes.
With the divisions being scrapped ahead of this season, the top two teams in the conference will lock up a spot in Charlotte and coming out of the weekend, there are still four unbeaten teams in league play.
The Tigers are currently 5-0 in the conference, with both Miami and SMU sitting at 4-0. Pitt is also unbeaten this season and is at 3-0 in ACC play. With Pitt and SMU facing off this weekend, one of those teams will be knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten.
However, there is still the potential for a three-way tie atop the league standings. As things stand right now, Clemson would be in good shape to get in due to the tiebreakers in place if that were to happen.
Remaining Opponents
No. 11 Clemson (6-1, 5-0 ACC): vs. Louisville, at Virginia Tech, at Pitt, vs. Citadel, vs. South Carolina
The Tigers now embark on the most challenging part of the schedule. While Clemson is a 10.5-point favorite over Louisville, the Cardinals will bring a high-powered offense to Death Valley. After that, it’s back-to-back road games. The first is at Virginia Tech, where the Tigers should be a decent favorite, but then it’s off to Pitt and that has the potential to be one of the biggest games of the season. Depending on what happens between now and then a spot in the ACC title game could be on the line. Then Clemson finishes it up with two nonconference games that won’t have any impact on the conference standings, but will heavily impact where they are ranked.
No. 5 Miami (8-0, 4-0 ACC): vs. Duke, at Georgia Tech, vs. Wake Forest, at Syracuse
For the first time in three weeks, the ‘Canes needed no help from the officiating as Miami thumped rival Florida State. Of the four teams vying for a spot in Charlotte, the Hurricanes have what looks like the least-challenging path.
No. 18 Pitt (6-0, 2-0 ACC): at SMU, vs. Virginia, vs. Clemson, at Louisville, at Boston College
One of the biggest surprises in college football now gets set for a big one as the Panthers travel to No. 20 SMU. This one could very well end up being an elimination game depending on what Clemson and Miami do the rest of the way. The Mustangs are currently a 7.5-point favorite to hand Pitt its first loss. Even if the Panthers find a way to win this weekend, they still have Clemson and Louisville left on the schedule.
No. 20 SMU (6-1, 2-0 ACC): vs. Pitt, vs. Boston College, at Virginia, vs. Cal
SMU survived a scare at Duke over the weekend. The Mustangs did everything in their power to give that one away but the Blue Devils just wouldn’t accept the gift. With the Mustangs already having one loss, this weekend’s home game against Pitt is huge. Not only in terms of keeping pace in the ACC but also in regards to any shot the team might have at an at-large bid.
With the new 12-team format, there is also the possibility of Clemson getting in at 11-2. Should the Tigers win out but lose in the ACC Championship Game, Clemson could be in position to earn an at-large spot.
How?
The first College Football Playoff rankings come out on Nov. 5. With Clemson currently No. 11 in the AP Poll, only Louisville stands in the way of the Tigers potentially being inside of the Top 10 in those initial rankings.
Win out the rest of the way and Clemson will likely be firmly entrenched inside the Top 10 and maybe in the Top 5. A loss to, let’s say a Top 5 Miami team might not knock them out of contention.
If there were a three-team tie atop the conference standings, there is the possibility of Clemson running the table, finishing 11-1, unbeaten in league play, and still not making it to the ACC Championship Game due to the tiebreakers in place. Although, right now those would favor Clemson. However, if the Tigers were to lose out on the tiebreaker and finish inside of the Top 10, it is likely they get in.
Who is in Contention with the Tigers?
Here is a look at what is left for some of the teams Clemson could be competing against for an at-large spot.
Big 10
Like the ACC, the Big 10 currently has four unbeaten teams vying for two spots in the conference championship game. Three of those teams are ranked inside of the AP Top 4, with Oregon still in top spot this week. Penn State is No. 3 and Ohio State No. 4. The surprise team here is Indiana. Although, the undefeated Hoosiers still aren’t getting a whole lot of respect from the voters, as they remained at No. 13, even after knocking off Washington 31-17.
No. 1 Oregon (8-0, 5-0 Big 10): at Michigan, vs. Maryland, at Wisconsin, vs. Washington
The Ducks continued their march towards the Big 10 title game with a convincing 38-9 win over No. 24 Illinois. Next up is a date with a three-loss Michigan team at the Big House. That just might be the biggest test left for the Ducks.
No. 3 Penn State (7-0, 4-0 Big 10): vs. Ohio State, vs. Washington, at Purdue, at Minnesota
After going on the road and beating Wisconsin last weekend, Penn State now gets set for a home matchup against Ohio State with playoff implications on the line. The Nittany Lions have lost seven straight in the series. If the Penn State can find a way to win this one, the rest of the slate is more than manageable.
No. 4 Ohio State (6-1, 3-1 Big 10): at Penn State, vs. Purdue, vs. Northwestern (in Chicago), at Indiana, vs. Michigan
Ohio State struggled with Nebraska over the weekend but held steady in the poll. This week they hit the road for Happy Valley with their playoff hopes quite possibly on the line. A loss doesn’t fully eliminate Ohio State, but it sure would diminish their chances.
No. 13 Indiana (8-0, 5-0 Big 10): at Michigan State, vs. Michigan, at Ohio State, vs. Purdue
The Cinderella Hoosiers keep plugging right along, but the road is about to get tougher. Indiana is a 6.5-point favorite over Michigan State and if they can get through the Spartans, Michigan and Ohio State await in back-to-back weeks. And the Hoosiers have to go to Ohio State. We are about to find out just how good this team is.
SEC Bias
That bias was on full display in the latest poll with Texas A&M jumping up and over Clemson, moving up four spots after a win over an LSU team that now has two losses. Like the Tigers, Tennessee had a bye week, but instead of dropping in the poll, the Vols held steady at No. 7.
The Aggies do remain unbeaten in SEC play by virtue of that win, but there are four teams with just one conference loss chomping at their heels.
No. 2 Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC): vs. Florida, at Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee, UMass, vs. Georgia Tech
The Dawgs were off over the weekend and will now welcome Florida to town. That is a game Georgia should win. After that it’s off to Ole Miss then back home for a big one against Tennessee.
No. 6 Texas (7-1, 3-1 SEC): vs. Florida, at Arkansas, vs. Kentucky, at Texas A&M
Surprisingly, the Longhorns dropped a spot after squeaking by a tough Vanderbilt team 27-24. The next three are all manageable and if Texas can run the table that just might set up a winner take all contest against in-state rival Texas A&M.
No. 7 Tennessee (6-1, 3-1 SEC): vs. Kentucky, vs. Mississippi State, at Georgia, vs. UTEP, at Vanderbilt
Outside of that road game against Georgia, the Volunteers have a favorable schedule. That matchup between the hedges could end up deciding if one of these teams are playing in Atlanta for an SEC title.
No. 10 Texas A&M (7-1, 5-0 SEC): at South Carolina, vs. New Mexico, at Auburn, vs. Texas
Again, the Aggies jumped four spots after knocking off LSU. It won’t get any easier this week as A&M heads to Columbia to face off against what has become a very stout South Carolina defense. With the Longhorns still to come, Texas A&M has one of the tougher slates of all five of these teams listed here.
No. 14 Alabama (5-2, 3-2 SEC): at LSU, vs. Mercer, at Oklahoma, vs. Auburn
With two losses already, Alabama finds itself playing for its playoff life each week. After shutting out Missouri over the weekend, the Tide moved up one spot in the poll and kept those hopes alive. It gets harder this week, though, with a matchup in Baton Rouge.
Can the Big 12 Get an At-Large Bid?
BYU and Iowa State both remain undefeated. The Cyclones were on a bye last weekend, while BYU beat a lowly UCF team and somehow jumped Clemson in the poll, moving to No. 9. Like the Tigers, Iowa State lost the bye week, dropping a spot. The two teams are tied at No. 11.
No. 9 BYU (8-0, 5-0 Big 12):, at Utah, vs. Kansas, at Arizona State, vs. Houston
No. 11 Iowa State (7-0, 4-0 Big 12): vs. Texas Tech, at Kansas, vs. Cincinnati, at Utah, vs. Kansas State
These two teams still seem to be on a collision course in the Big 12 title game, and as things stand right now that would look to be an elimination game. The winner is in and the loser out.
Independents or Group of 5
No. 8 Notre Dame (7-1): vs. Florida State, vs. Virginia, vs. Army (Yankee Stadium), at Southern Cal
After smoking Navy over the weekend and knocking the service academy out of the Top 25, Notre Dame jumped four spots. And we are talking about a team that lost to a Northern Illinois squad that is just 1-3 in the MAC. As laughable as it is, it looks like the Irish will get in if they win out and with that schedule that is a distinct possibility.
No. 15 Boise State (6-1, 3-0 MWC): vs. San Diego State, vs. Nevada, at San Jose, at Wyoming, vs. Oregon State
The Broncos jumped three spots themselves after taking down UNLV, meaning Boise State is very much alive for one of the at-large bids.
Based off the AP Poll and possible conference champions, here is what the CFP seedings might look like (Note, the AP Poll is not used in the CFP rankings).
- Oregon
- Georgia
- Miami
- BYU
- Penn State
- Ohio State
- Texas
- Tennessee
- Notre Dame
- Clemson
- Iowa State
- Boise State
The conference champions (using the AP Poll as reference):
ACC: Miami
Big Ten: Oregon
Big 12: BYU
SEC: Georgia
Highest Group of 5 Champion: Boise State
In this scenario, Texas, Oregon, Miami and BYU would have automatic byes to the quarterfinals. Boise State would play a first-round playoff game on the road.
Possible CFP Matchups:
For Dec. 20-21 CFP Games on home fields
No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Penn State
No. 11 Iowa State at No. 6 Ohio State
No. 10 Clemson at No. 7 Texas
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 LSU
2024-25 College Football Playoff schedule, dates, TV channel, sites
All times Eastern
- First round (Dec. 20-21)
- Friday, Dec. 20: 8 p.m. | ABC/ESPN
- Saturday, Dec. 21: 12 p.m. | TNT Sports
- Saturday, Dec. 21: 4 p.m. | TNT Sports
- Saturday, Dec. 21: 8 p.m. | ABC/ESPN
- Quarterfinals (Dec. 31-Jan. 1)
- Fiesta Bowl: 7:30 p.m. Tuesday, Dec. 31 | ESPN
- Peach Bowl: 1 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 1 | ESPN
- Rose Bowl: 5 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 1 | ESPN
- Sugar Bowl: 8:45 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 1 | ESPN
- Semifinals (Jan. 9-10)
- Orange Bowl: 7:30 p.m. Thursday, Jan. 9 | ESPN
- Cotton Bowl: 7:30 p.m. Friday, Jan. 10 | ESPN
- CFP National Championship
- 7:30 p.m. Monday, Jan. 20 | ESPN Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia
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