JP’s Preview and Prediction: Clemson at South Carolina

Once again, Clemson and South Carolina will do battle in the annual rivalry game.

The Tigers will head to Columbia, where they have not lost since 2013, looking to keep the Gamecocks from their first back-to-back wins in the series since the five-game losing streak that was snapped more than a decade ago. In fact, Clemson is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings in Columbia.

While this year’s iteration won’t have the national hype that some believed it would have in the preseason, bragging rights and pride are still on the line.

For Clemson, the recipe is fairly simple. Don’t allow a repeat of a season ago when South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers was a one-man show, rushing for 166 yards and two scores, including the game-winner with just over a minute left.

If Sellers is allowed to have that kind of success on Saturday, it’s likely going to be a long afternoon for the Tigers. While Sellers hasn’t been used quite the same in the running game most of the season, the Gamecocks have a new play caller after the firing of Mike Shula a couple of weeks back, meaning you can likely expect a heavy dose of the quarterback in the run game. And after the struggles Clemson had last season, why wouldn’t they pound it with him?

The Gamecocks’ numbers offensively shouldn’t scare anyone. They’ve gone over 350 yards of total offense just twice all season, have one of the more poorly rated rushing attacks in the nation, and only four teams in the entire FBS have allowed more sacks.

The Tigers are going to have to find a way to take advantage of the protection issues and put some consistent pressure on Sellers. Then, when they get hands on him, you have to bring him down. And you absolutely can’t leave open lanes for him to escape. If he’s allowed to get into the second level, he will have a field day against this defense.

The backend also has to minimize the busts. The Clemson secondary has been better in recent weeks, but keeping Nick Harbor from getting behind the coverage will be challenging. He has elite speed and has developed into a pretty solid receiver. Freshman wideout Jayden Sellers, the younger brother of LaNorris, has turned into a pretty good weapon in the passing game in recent weeks, too.

The biggest challenge just might lie with Garrett Riley’s offense. The Tigers just haven’t had much success offensively in this game during Riley’s tenure. While the SC defense may not be what it was a season ago, it’s still pretty good, and they’ve got two ends that can get after the quarterback.

The interior of the SC defensive line has also been pretty solid against the run, allowing 3.78 yards per attempt. With Clemson’s offensive line being so banged up, it’s fair to wonder how much success the Tigers will have running the ball between the tackles. Clemson did do a really good job in pass pro against a better Gamnecocks’ front last season.

If Adam Randall and Gideon Davidson can’t get the running game going, that puts more pressure on Cade Klubnik and the passing game. With part of Klubnik’s legacy at Clemson on the line in this game, there will already be plenty of that. Win this one, and he is 2-1 against the Gamecocks as the starter. Lose it, and he falls to 1-2 against the biggest rival.

For me, the Clemson offense will be what wins this game or loses it. Two years ago, the Tigers couldn’t muster an offensive touchdown in a 16-7 win. Last season, Klubnik led the offense to just two touchdowns in a 17-14 loss. Get over the 20-point mark, and I like the Tigers’ chances.

At the end of the day, it’s hard to get a good feel for how this one might play out. Both teams have failed massively at living up to preseason expectations. It is even harder to trust that the Clemson offense and defense will play enough complementary football to come out with the win.

While I do foresee the Tigers having more success in containing Sellers, I’m not convinced that will be enough. It’s close, but South Carolina just makes one more play, probably a long touchdown pass over the top of the secondary, making what’s transpired this season even tougher to swallow.

South Carolina 20, Clemson 16

Photo by Bart Boatwright